IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v31y2004i5-6p729-757.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Ian M. Dobbs

Abstract

Replacement investment is essentially a regenerative optimal stopping problem; that is, the key decision concerns when to terminate the life of existing plant – and hence when to start over again. This paper examines this optimisation problem within a continuous time framework and studies the qualitative and quantitative impact of uncertainty on the timing of new investment (and the criteria that should be used for terminating the life of existing plant).

Suggested Citation

  • Ian M. Dobbs, 2004. "Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 729-757, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:31:y:2004:i:5-6:p:729-757
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.00555.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.00555.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.00555.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1985. "Stationary Equilibrium in a Market for Durable Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(4), pages 783-805, July.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. Huw Rhys & Mark Tippet, 2002. "Stochastic Depreciation and Optimal Consumption‐Investment Decisions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1‐2), pages 273-286.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    5. Kim, Jae-Cheol, 1985. "The Market for "Lemons" Reconsidered: A Model of the Used Car Market with Asymmetric Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 836-843, September.
    6. William P. Pierskalla & John A. Voelker, 1976. "A survey of maintenance models: The control and surveillance of deteriorating systems," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 353-388, September.
    7. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    8. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    9. Genesove, David, 1993. "Adverse Selection in the Wholesale Used Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 644-665, August.
    10. Dumas, Bernard, 1991. "Super contact and related optimality conditions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 675-685, October.
    11. Y. S. Sherif & M. L. Smith, 1981. "Optimal maintenance models for systems subject to failure–A Review," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 47-74, March.
    12. Huw Rhys, 2000. "Depreciation: A Stochastic Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5&6), pages 777-784.
    13. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    14. Huw Rhys, 2000. "Depreciation: A Stochastic Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 777-784, June.
    15. Huw Rhys & Mark Tippet, 2002. "Stochastic Depreciation and Optimal Consumption-Investment Decisions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1&2), pages 273-286.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiland, Brandon & Sesmero, Juan Pablo & Preckel, Paul & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2017. "Can Wood Pellets Save Coal?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258250, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Reindorp, Matthew J. & Fu, Michael C., 2011. "Capital renewal as a real option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 109-117, October.
    3. Paul R. Kleindorfer & Andrei Neboian & Alain Roset & Stefan Spinler, 2012. "Fleet Renewal with Electric Vehicles at La Poste," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(5), pages 465-477, October.
    4. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2013. "The effect of tax depreciation on the stochastic replacement policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 155-164.
    5. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2017. "Replacement decisions with multiple stochastic values and depreciation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 174-184.
    6. Dimitrios Koumparoulis, 2011. "The Proportionality Hypothesis in Capital Theory: an Assessment of the Literature," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 27, pages 27-39, February.
    7. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2013. "Deterministic models for premature and postponed replacement," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1008-1019.
    8. Song-Man Wu & Felix T. S. Chan & S. H. Chung, 2022. "The influence of positive and negative salvage values on supply chain financing strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(1), pages 535-563, August.
    9. M. Trojanowska & P. M. Kort, 2010. "The Worst Case for Real Options," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 709-734, September.
    10. Stutzmas, Sarah & Weiland, Brandon & Preckel, Paul & Wetzstein, Michael, 2016. "Can wood pellets save coal? A real options approach to retrofitting coal plants," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 234940, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    12. Fumagalli, Elena & Garrone, Paola & Grilli, Luca, 2007. "Service quality in the electricity industry: The role of privatization and managerial behavior," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6212-6224, December.
    13. Yatsenko, Yuri & Hritonenko, Natali, 2017. "Machine replacement under evolving deterministic and stochastic costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 491-501.
    14. Müller, Christine & Growitsch, Christian & Wissner, Matthias, 2010. "Regulierung und Investitionsanreize in der ökonomischen Theorie. IRIN Working Paper im Rahmen des Arbeitspakets: Smart Grid-gerechte Weiterentwicklung der Anreizregulierung," WIK Discussion Papers 349, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    15. Nykamp, Stefan & Andor, Mark & Hurink, Johann L., 2012. "‘Standard’ incentive regulation hinders the integration of renewable energy generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 222-237.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian M. Dobbs, 2004. "Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5-6), pages 729-757.
    2. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    3. Hanno Dihle, 2015. "Real Options in a Ramsey style Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 32, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Dec 2015.
    4. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    5. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    6. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    7. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    8. Kogan, Leonid, 2001. "An equilibrium model of irreversible investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 201-245, November.
    9. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    10. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2019. "Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 801, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Mérel, Pierre & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2021. "How big is the “lemons” problem? Historical evidence from French wines," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Kovenock, Dan & Phillips, Gordon M, 1997. "Capital Structure and Product Market Behavior: An Examination of Plant Exit and Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 767-803.
    13. Almaghrabi, Khadija S., 2023. "Local product market competition and investment home bias," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    15. Alain Bensoussan & Benoît Chevalier-Roignant, 2019. "Sequential Capacity Expansion Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 33-57, January.
    16. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    17. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    18. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    19. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2002. "Patents, Real Options and Firm Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 97-116, March.
    20. Jonathan R. Peterson & Henry S. Schneider, 2017. "Beautiful Lemons: Adverse Selection in Durable-Goods Markets with Sorting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3111-3127, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:31:y:2004:i:5-6:p:729-757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.