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Linkages between natural gas, fertiliser and cereal prices: A note

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  • Puneet Vatsa
  • Dragan Miljkovic
  • Jungho Baek

Abstract

We use structural vector autoregressions to analyse the dynamic effects of shocks to natural gas and nitrogenous fertiliser prices on three major cereal crops: maize, rice and wheat. We find that the response of cereal prices to natural gas and fertiliser price shocks has been relatively small, instantaneous and transitory. These findings suggest that crop prices may change rapidly in response to energy and fertiliser prices, even when there are no shifts in the underlying fundamentals in crop markets. Furthermore, because the effects of the shocks dissipate rather quickly, short‐term measures to address swings in food prices may suffice.

Suggested Citation

  • Puneet Vatsa & Dragan Miljkovic & Jungho Baek, 2023. "Linkages between natural gas, fertiliser and cereal prices: A note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 935-940, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:74:y:2023:i:3:p:935-940
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    2. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    3. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    4. Md. Abdur Rahman Forhad & Md Rafayet Alam, 2022. "Impact of oil demand and supply shocks on food-grain prices: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1199-1211, February.
    5. Puneet Vatsa & Dragan Miljkovic, 2022. "Energy and crop price cycles before and after the global financial crisis: A new approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-233, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Schaub & Nadja El Benni, 2024. "How do price (risk) changes influence farmers’ preferences to reduce fertilizer application?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 365-383, March.

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