IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jageco/v74y2023i3p857-873.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of dairy‐product trade: Do subsidies matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Magdana Kondaridze
  • Jeff Luckstead

Abstract

Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy‐product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy‐product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy‐product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag‐policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead‐policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdana Kondaridze & Jeff Luckstead, 2023. "Determinants of dairy‐product trade: Do subsidies matter?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 857-873, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:74:y:2023:i:3:p:857-873
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12536
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-9552.12536?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    3. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi & Roe, Terry L., 2001. "A Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Reform In Wto Member Countries," Bulletins 12984, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
    4. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Fontagne, Lionel & Mimouni, Mondher, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-7.
    5. Won W. Koo & David Karemera & Richard Taylor, 1994. "A gravity model analysis of meat trade policies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 81-88, January.
    6. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
    7. Catherine Couillard & Ekaterina Turkina, 2015. "Trade Liberalisation: The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on the Competitiveness of the Dairy Sector," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 1015-1033, June.
    8. Chor, Davin, 2010. "Unpacking sources of comparative advantage: A quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 152-167, November.
    9. Masood, Amjad, 2021. "Anatomy of the trade-effect of regional trade agreements and agenda for future research," MPRA Paper 108284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    11. Kirsten Boysen‐Urban & Martina Brockmeier & Hans G. Jensen & Ole Boysen, 2020. "Measuring the Trade Restrictiveness of Domestic Support using the EU Common Agricultural Policy as an Example," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 27-49, February.
    12. Lan Anh Tong & Cong S Pham & Mehmet A Ulubaşoğlu, 2019. "The Effects of Farm Subsidies on Farm Exports in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1277-1304.
    13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    14. Randolph Bruno & Nauro Campos & Saul Estrin & Meng Tian, 2017. "Economic integration, foreign investment and international trade: the effects of membership of the European Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp1518, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Otsuki, Tsunehiro & Wilson, John S. & Sewadeh, Mirvat, 2001. "Saving two in a billion: : quantifying the trade effect of European food safety standards on African exports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 495-514, October.
    16. Dorakh, Alena, 2020. "A Gravity Model Analysis of FDI across EU Member States," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(3), pages 426-456.
    17. Joe Dewbre & Jesús Antón & Wyatt Thompton, 2001. "The Transfer Efficiency and Trade Effects of Direct Payments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1204-1214.
    18. Henson, Spencer & Loader, Rupert, 2001. "Barriers to Agricultural Exports from Developing Countries: The Role of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Requirements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 85-102, January.
    19. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    20. Ridley, William & Luckstead, Jeff & Devadoss, Stephen, 2022. "Wine: The punching bag in trade retaliation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    21. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 49-63.
    22. Vitaliano, Peter, 2016. "Global Dairy Trade: Where are we, how did we get here and where are we going?," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(B), pages 1-10, August.
    23. Borchert, Ingo & Larch, Mario & Shikher, Serge & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 140-166.
    24. Won W. Koo & P. Lynn Kennedy, 2006. "The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on Global Welfare," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1219-1226.
    25. Knips, Vivien, 2005. "Developing Countries and the Global Dairy Sector Part I Global Overview," PPLPI Working Papers 23768, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative.
    26. Koo, Won W. & Karemera, David & Taylor, Richard, 1994. "A gravity model analysis of meat trade policies," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 81-88, January.
    27. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    28. Lin Sun & Michael R. Reed, 2010. "Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade Creation and Trade Diversion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1363.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kalaitan, Tetyana & Stybel, Volodymyr & Hrymak, Oleh & Sarakhman, Oksana & Shurpenkova, Ruslana, 2023. "State support of the dairy industry and prospects for its development in the post-war period," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(3), September.
    2. Headey, Derek D. & Alderman, Harold & Hoddinott, John & Narayanan, Sudha, 2024. "The glass of milk half-empty? Dairy development and nutrition in low and middle income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2022. "On the trade effects of bilateral SPS measures in developed and developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3109-3145, October.
    2. Ingo Borchert & Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Disaggregated gravity: Benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 113-136, February.
    3. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    4. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    5. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. William C. Ridley & Jeff Luckstead & Stephen Devadoss, 2024. "Impacts of tariffs and NTMs on beef, pork and poultry trade," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 546-572, June.
    7. Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Esteve-Pérez, Silviano & Gil-Pareja, Salvador, 2023. "A re-assessment of the heterogeneous effect of trade agreements using intra-national trade flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 940-951.
    8. Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The evolution of structural gravity: The workhorse model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 578-603, October.
    9. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    10. Yang, Yichen & Liu, Wen, 2024. "Free trade agreements and domestic value added in exports: An analysis from the network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Ridley, William & Luckstead, Jeff & Devadoss, Stephen, 2022. "Wine: The punching bag in trade retaliation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    13. Julia Spornberger, 2022. "EU integration and structural gravity: A comprehensive quantification of the border effect on trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 915-938, September.
    14. Amara Zongo, 2021. "The impact of services trade restrictiveness on food trade," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 71-94.
    15. Erick Kitenge & Sajal Lahiri, 2022. "Is the Internet bringing down language‐based barriers to international trade?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 566-605, May.
    16. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2021. "Has the Euro paid off? A study of the trade-induced welfare effects of the EMU," Working Papers 2103, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    17. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.
    18. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez & Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2020. "EMU and trade: A PPML re‐assessment with intra‐national trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2574-2599, October.
    19. Zhao, Yongzhi & Ji, Changjing & Chen, Yangfen & Zhu, Xueqin, 2024. "Who gains, who loses? – The impact of the belt and road initiative on bilateral agricultural trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:74:y:2023:i:3:p:857-873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-857X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.