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Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan

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  • A. Ford Ramsey
  • Sujit K. Ghosh
  • Tadashi Sonoda

Abstract

Off‐farm employment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farm exit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. Examining this issue in the context of Japanese agriculture, we find that farm exits are related to off‐farm income as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off‐farm work. Two econometric models are developed: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform well in predicting exit rates across the towns and prefectures of Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Ford Ramsey & Sujit K. Ghosh & Tadashi Sonoda, 2019. "Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 372-391, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:70:y:2019:i:2:p:372-391
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12290
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    Cited by:

    1. Zorn, Alexander & Zimmert, Franziska, 2020. "Structural adjustment of Swiss dairy farms - farm exit and farm type change," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305605, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Cloete, Kandas & Greyling, Jan & Delport, Marion, 2022. "Strategic perspectives on quitting or remaining in commercial agriculture in South Africa and why it matters," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 61(1), January.
    3. Zorn, Alexander & Zimmert, Franziska, 2020. "Structural adjustment of Swiss dairy farms - farm exit and farm type change," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305605, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Sandile Birthwell Ndwandwe & Ruey-Chee Weng, 2018. "Competitive Analyses of the Pig Industry in Swaziland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, November.
    5. A. Ford Ramsey & Tadashi Sonoda & Minkyong Ko, 2023. "Intersectoral labor migration and agriculture in the United States and Japan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 364-381, May.
    6. Ramsey, A. Ford & Sonoda, Tadashi & Ko, Minkyong, 2021. "Aggregation and Threshold Models of Intersectoral Labor Migration: Evidence from the United States and Japan," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315110, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Alexander Zorn & Franziska Zimmert, 2022. "Structural change in the dairy sector: exit from farming and farm type change," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Fertő, Imre & Bojnec, Štefan & Iwasaki, Ichiro & Shida, Yoshisada, 2024. "Why do corporate farms survive in Central and Eastern Europe?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

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