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Measuring the Volatility of Wheat Futures Prices on the LIFFE

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  • P. J. Dawson

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="jage12092-abs-0001"> Agricultural prices rose dramatically in 2007 and have subsequently fluctuated at high levels. This paper estimates the volatility of daily wheat futures prices on the Euronext/London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange for 1996–2012 using an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with a constant (price) elasticity of variance (CEV) and a broken trend. Results show that volatility is highly persistent; there is a structural break in volatility in June 2007 when volatility rose by 10%; subsequently, the wheat futures price has become more volatile; and the CEV is 0.04.

Suggested Citation

  • P. J. Dawson, 2015. "Measuring the Volatility of Wheat Futures Prices on the LIFFE," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 20-35, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:66:y:2015:i:1:p:20-35
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jage.2014.66.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Stefano Ciliberti & Gaetano Martino & Angelo Frascarelli & Gabriele Chiodini, 2019. "Contractual arrangements in the Italian durum wheat supply chain: The impacts of the "Fondo grano duro"," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 21(2), pages 235-254.
    3. Marie Steen & Olvar Bergland & Ole Gjølberg, 2023. "Climate Change and Grain Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Corn and Wheat 1971–2019," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-12, January.
    4. Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2019. "Testing for Structural Changes in the European Union’s Agricultural Sector," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.

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