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Sovereign Ratings and Oil-Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings

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  • Robert V. Breunig
  • Tse Chern Chia

Abstract

We investigate how high and rising oil prices in the 2003–2008 period affected the sovereign ratings of oil-exporting countries, after controlling for fundamentals. Based on a large dataset of countries from Standard and Poor's and Moody's, we find strong statistical evidence of a large ratings premium – nearly two notches – for those oil-exporting countries with a large share of net oil revenue to gross domestic product, relative to countries with similar economic fundamentals. We have some limited forecast information from the rating agencies and the effect increases when we include this information, providing further evidence that this ratings premium is not driven by expected improvements in fundamentals. This finding has implications for asset prices in oil-exporting countries and highlights the risk that in the event of a sharp unanticipated drop in oil prices, sovereign rating downgrades of oil-exporting countries could be sharper than the deterioration in their economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert V. Breunig & Tse Chern Chia, 2015. "Sovereign Ratings and Oil-Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 113-138, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:15:y:2015:i:1:p:113-138
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/irfi.12036
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    2. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2016. "Emerging trends in Asia-Pacific finance research: A review of recent influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Joint Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Environmental Risks on Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Panel Data of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 522-528.
    5. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    6. Isma il Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2017. "A Pooled Mean Group Approach to the Joint Effects of Oil Price Changes and Environmental Risks on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting the Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 345-351.
    7. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    8. Talal AL-Bazali & Mohammad Al-Zuhair, 2022. "The Use of Fuzzy Logic to Assess Sustainability of Oil and Gas Resources (R/P): Technical, Economic and Political Perspectives," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 449-458, March.

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