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A Stochastic Approach to Model Dynamic Systems in Life Cycle Assessment

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  • Shelie A. Miller
  • Stephen Moysey
  • Benjamin Sharp
  • Jose Alfaro

Abstract

This article presents a framework to evaluate emerging systems in life cycle assessment (LCA). Current LCA methods are effective for established systems; however, lack of data often inhibits robust analysis of future products or processes that may benefit the most from life cycle information. In many cases the life cycle inventory (LCI) of a system can change depending on its development pathway. Modeling emerging systems allows insights into probable trends and a greater understanding of the effect of future scenarios on LCA results. The proposed framework uses Bayesian probabilities to model technology adoption. The method presents a unique approach to modeling system evolution and can be used independently or within the context of an agent‐based model (ABM). LCA can be made more robust and dynamic by using this framework to couple scenario modeling with life cycle data, analyzing the effect of decision‐making patterns over time. Potential uses include examining the changing urban metabolism of growing cities, understanding the development of renewable energy technologies, identifying transformations in material flows over space and time, and forecasting industrial networks for developing products. A switchgrass‐to‐energy case demonstrates the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Shelie A. Miller & Stephen Moysey & Benjamin Sharp & Jose Alfaro, 2013. "A Stochastic Approach to Model Dynamic Systems in Life Cycle Assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(3), pages 352-362, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:17:y:2013:i:3:p:352-362
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00531.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Cornago & Yee Shee Tan & Carlo Brondi & Seeram Ramakrishna & Jonathan Sze Choong Low, 2022. "Systematic Literature Review on Dynamic Life Cycle Inventory: Towards Industry 4.0 Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Tianran Ding & Bernhard Steubing & Wouter Achten, 2022. "Coupling optimization with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/359529, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Bichraoui-Draper, Najet & Xu, Ming & Miller, Shelie A. & Guillaume, Bertrand, 2015. "Agent-based life cycle assessment for switchgrass-based bioenergy systems," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 171-178.
    4. Tianran Ding & Wouter Achten, 2023. "Coupling agent-based modeling with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/359527, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Tianran Ding & Wouter Achten, 2022. "Coupling agent-based modeling with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/352782, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Thomas Beaussier & Sylvain Caurla & Véronique Bellon Maurel & Eléonore Loiseau, 2019. "Coupling economic models and environmental assessment methods to support regional policies : A critical review," Post-Print hal-02021423, HAL.
    7. Francesco Pomponi & Bernardino D’Amico & Alice M. Moncaster, 2017. "A Method to Facilitate Uncertainty Analysis in LCAs of Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Albers, Ariane & Collet, Pierre & Lorne, Daphné & Benoist, Anthony & Hélias, Arnaud, 2019. "Coupling partial-equilibrium and dynamic biogenic carbon models to assess future transport scenarios in France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 316-330.
    9. Weiwei Mo & Zhongming Lu & Bistra Dilkina & Kevin H. Gardner & Ju-Chin Huang & Maria Christina Foreman, 2018. "Sustainable and Resilient Design of Interdependent Water and Energy Systems: A Conceptual Modeling Framework for Tackling Complexities at the Infrastructure-Human-Resource Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-10, June.
    10. Raihanian Mashhadi, Ardeshir & Behdad, Sara, 2018. "Discriminant effects of consumer electronics use-phase attributes on household energy prediction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 346-355.
    11. Tianran Ding & Bernhard Steubing & Wouter Achten, 2022. "Coupling optimization with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/352783, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Sayyed Shoaib-ul-Hasan & Malvina Roci & Farazee M. A. Asif & Niloufar Salehi & Amir Rashid, 2021. "Analyzing Temporal Variability in Inventory Data for Life Cycle Assessment: Implications in the Context of Circular Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, January.

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