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Underreaction to Political Information and Price Momentum

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Listed:
  • Jawad M. Addoum
  • Stefanos Delikouras
  • Da Ke
  • Alok Kumar

Abstract

In this study, we examine whether momentum in stock prices is induced by changes in the political environment. We find that momentum profits are concentrated among politically sensitive firms and industries. From 1939 to 2016, a trading strategy with a long position in winner portfolios (industries or firms) that are politically unfavored and a short position in losers that are politically favored does not generate significant momentum profits. Furthermore, our political‐sensitivity‐based long‐short portfolio explains 23% to 27% (42% to 43%) of monthly stock (industry) momentum alphas. This explanatory power is concentrated around presidential elections, when the level of political activity is high. Collectively, our results suggest that investor underreaction to political information generates momentum in stock and industry returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawad M. Addoum & Stefanos Delikouras & Da Ke & Alok Kumar, 2019. "Underreaction to Political Information and Price Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 773-804, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:3:p:773-804
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12241
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    Cited by:

    1. Garima Goel & Saumya Ranjan Dash & Mário Nuno Mata & António Bento Caleiro & João Xavier Rita & José António Filipe, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Return Momentum," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Chan, Kam Fong & Malik, Ihtisham, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    3. Huang, Shuyang & Zeng, Ming, 2022. "Political sentiment and MAX effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Choi, Seong-jin & Liu, Huilong & Yin, Jun & Qi, Yunfei & Lee, Jeoung Yul, 2021. "The effect of political turnover on firms’ strategic change in the emerging economies: The moderating role of political connections and financial resources," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 255-266.
    5. Ming Gu & Minxing Sun & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 237-259, March.

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