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An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

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  • Yuriy Zabolotnyuk
  • Robert Jones
  • Chris Veld

Abstract

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out‐of‐sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache‐Forsyth‐Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis‐Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan‐Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache‐Forsyth‐Vetzal and Tsiveriotis‐Fernandes models outperform the Brennan‐Schwartz model.

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  • Yuriy Zabolotnyuk & Robert Jones & Chris Veld, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 675-706, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:39:y:2010:i:2:p:675-706
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2010.01088.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan A. Batten & Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw & Martin R. Young, 2014. "Convertible Bond Pricing Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 775-803, December.
    2. Marle, Mats van & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2017. "The long and the short of convertible arbitrage: An empirical examination of arbitrageurs’ holding periods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 237-249.
    3. Grundy, Bruce D. & Verwijmeren, Patrick & Yang, Antti, 2024. "Intermediary frictions and convertible bond pricing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Loncarski, I., 2007. "Essays on the use of convertible bonds and the security issuance decision," Other publications TiSEM a99aaa14-d375-414b-8643-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Dutordoir, Marie & Lewis, Craig & Seward, James & Veld, Chris, 2014. "What we do and do not know about convertible bond financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 3-20.
    6. Bruce D. Grundy & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2012. "Dividend-Protected Convertible Bonds and the Disappearance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-060/2/DSF37, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Xiao, Tim, 2013. "A Simple and Precise Method for Pricing Convertible Bond with Credit Risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 259-277.
    8. Tim Xiao, 2015. "Is the jump-diffusion model a good solution for credit risk modelling? The case of convertible bonds," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25.
    9. Fan, Chenxi & Luo, Xingguo & Wu, Qingbiao, 2017. "Stochastic volatility vs. jump diffusions: Evidence from the Chinese convertible bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Finnerty, John D., 2015. "Valuing convertible bonds and the option to exchange bonds for stock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 91-115.
    11. Duca, Eric & Dutordoir, Marie & Veld, Chris & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2012. "Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2884-2899.
    12. de Jong, Abe & Dutordoir, Marie & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2011. "Why do convertible issuers simultaneously repurchase stock? An arbitrage-based explanation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 113-129, April.
    13. K. Milanov & O. Kounchev, 2012. "Binomial Tree Model for Convertible Bond Pricing within Equity to Credit Risk Framework," Papers 1206.1400, arXiv.org.
    14. Ling, Yu-Xiu & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2022. "Interconnectedness between convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the Chinese capital market: A multilayer network perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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