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Post†Retirement Financial Strategies: Forecasts and Valuation

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  • William F. Sharpe

Abstract

This paper uses a discrete†time, discrete†state Monte Carlo simulation model to evaluate representative strategies for investing and spending a fixed sum designed to fund consumption during the period after retirement. Two assets are considered – one providing a riskless real return, the other a market portfolio of bonds and stocks. A stochastic process for the returns from the market portfolio is proposed. Then a set of Arrow†Debreu state prices is obtained on the assumption that the market portfolio is an efficient investment strategy. The model is used to forecast ranges of consumption and ranges of the ratios of year†to†year consumption, and also to estimate the values of components of future consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • William F. Sharpe, 2012. "Post†Retirement Financial Strategies: Forecasts and Valuation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 324-351, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:324-351
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00639.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    2. Philip H. Dybvig, 1988. "Inefficient Dynamic Portfolio Strategies or How to Throw Away a Million Dollars in the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 67-88.
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