Agricultural enlargement of the EU under Agenda 2000: Surplus of farm labour versus surplus of farm products

In the Commission's proposals for reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and enlargement of the EU (Agenda 2000), the agriculture of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is denied future access to compensatory payments for cuts in support prices in the EU15. To offset this, the acceding countries are promised a similar net amount of structural aid for their economy and society at large. This dual treatment aims at preventing agricultural surpluses and intersectoral distortion after accession. However, the actual situation and dynamics of agriculture in Central Europe (CE) compared to that in the EU does not support the surplus assumption globally, but only for certain products, chiefly grains. So far overlooked, but nevertheless, a key obstacle opposing competitive recovery, is the tendency of the dual, post‐communist agrarian structures, faced with high rural unemployment, to protect long‐term underproductive farm labour to the detriment of capital and land remuneration, mainly in livestock production. This configuration is supported by specific trade and land protections, and loose qualittative regulations that will be challenged by the EU enlargement. So, after accession under the Agenda 2000 schedule, it seems likely that CEE countries will achieve European competitiveness only at the cost of some recession, further deterioration of trade balances with the EU 15 and sharp decreases in farm employment levels. These factors would chiefly affect livestock production which, combined with crop intensification, is likely to result in a substantial increase in grain surpluses. Later on, the enlarged EU will have to bear the inevitable social consequences that transitional periods after accession might otherwise have postponed.