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Integration and transition: Scenarios for the location of production and trade in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Rikard Forslid
  • Jan I. Haaland
  • Karen Helene M. Knarvik
  • Ottar Maestad

Abstract

Applying a newly developed CGE‐model, we present scenarios for the future economic geography of Europe. The model divides the world into ten regions, five of which are European, and 14 industries, of which 12 are imperfectly competitive. With a complete input‐output structure, the model captures comparative advantage mechanisms as well as intra‐industry trade and ‘new economic geography’ agglomeration forces. The simulations focus on the consequences of successful transformation in Eastern Europe. The results indicate that transformation and European integration are of great importance for Eastern Europe, while the overall effects for other European regions are small. Individual sectors in the EU, such as Textiles and Transport Equipment, are, however, in some cases strongly affected. JEL classification: C68, F12, F17, R11.

Suggested Citation

  • Rikard Forslid & Jan I. Haaland & Karen Helene M. Knarvik & Ottar Maestad, 2002. "Integration and transition: Scenarios for the location of production and trade in Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 93-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:93-117
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00104
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    Cited by:

    1. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2007. "Adding Geography to the New Economic Geography," CESifo Working Paper Series 2038, CESifo.
    2. Marius Brülhart & Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2004. "Enlargement and the EU Periphery: The Impact of Changing Market Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 853-875, June.
    3. Adolfo Cristobal-Campoamor & Osiris Parcero, 2013. "Behind the Eastern–Western European convergence path: the role of geography and trade liberalization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(3), pages 871-891, December.
    4. Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
    5. Antje Hildebrandt & Julia Wörz, 2004. "Determinants of Geographical Concentration Patterns in Central and Eastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-95.
    6. Maria Florencia Granato, 2011. "REGIONAL NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p747, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "Agglomeration And Dispersion In China And Asean: A Geographical Simulation Analysis," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-16.
    8. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    9. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    10. Forslid, Rikard & Haaland, Jan I. & Midelfart Knarvik, Karen Helene, 2002. "A U-shaped Europe?: A simulation study of industrial location," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, August.
    11. Adolfo Cristobal Campoamor & Osiris Jorge Parcero, 2024. "Behind the Eastern-Western European convergence path: the role of geography and trade liberalization," Papers 2401.05107, arXiv.org.
    12. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    13. Maryla Maliszewska, 2004. "EU Enlargement: Benefits of the Single Market Expansion for Current and New Member States," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0273, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    14. repec:onb:oenbfs:y:2004:i:1:b:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    16. Alessandro ANTIMIANI & Anna CARBONE & Valeria COSTANTINI & Roberto HENKE, 2012. "Agri-food exports in the enlarged European Union," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(8), pages 354-366.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1859 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:lic:licosd:19507 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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