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It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia

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  • LISA CAMERON
  • MARK CROSBY

Abstract

In this paper we examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions on Federal electoral performance in 20th‐century Australia. We find that the electorate penalizes a government for high inflation and high unemployment relative to trend. Real GDP growth and real wage growth were not found to have a systematic relationship with incumbent vote share at the Federal level. We also examine the voteshare of the Federal incumbent in three electorates: the safe Liberal seat of Kooyong, the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Pans, and the swinging seat of Latrobe. We find some evidence that unemployment affects electoral outcomes in the swinging seat, but no macroeconomic variables affect outcomes in the safe seats.

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  • Lisa Cameron & Mark Crosby, 2000. "It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 354-364, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:76:y:2000:i:235:p:354-364
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2000.tb00032.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    2. Crosby, Mark & Brown, Diane & Malady, Louise, 1997. "Political and Partisan Cycles in the Australian Economy," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(68), pages 42-54, June.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 325-340, September.
    2. Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Economic Voting And Electoral Behavior: How Do Individual, Local, And National Factors Affect The Partisan Choice?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 265-296, July.
    3. Hamish Greenop‐Roberts, 2022. "Forecasting Federal Elections: New Data From 2010–2019 and a Discussion of Alternative and Emerging Methods," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
    4. Andrew Leigh & Mark Mcleish, 2009. "Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 210-222, June.
    5. Abdoul Aziz NDIAYE & Birane DIOUF & Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE, 2022. "Les déterminants économiques du vote aux élections présidentielles dans les pays de l’UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 5-23.

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