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A Test of Long‐run Purchasing Power Parity Allowing for Structural Breaks

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  • DEAN CORBAE
  • SAM OULIARIS

Abstract

If exchange rates and prices are integrated processes, standard econometric tests of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis may be biased towards rejection. This paper avoids this problem by using the Engle and Granger (1987) theory of cointegrated processes. If the absolute version of purchasing power parity is true, and nominal exchange rates and prices are integrated processes, inter‐commodity arbitrage should ensure that the real exchange rate is stationary. The stationarity hypothesis is tested using Australian real exchange rate data for the 1890–1984 period We find that the effective real exchange rate cannot be modelled as a stationary process and therefore reject the absolute version of PPP. We also employ a test for structural breaks due to, for instance, the oil price shock and find mixed results. Another interpretation of our results is that the real exchange rate was affected by a series of permanent, real shocks during the sample period

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris, 1991. "A Test of Long‐run Purchasing Power Parity Allowing for Structural Breaks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(1), pages 26-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:1:p:26-33
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1990.tb02525.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-511, August.
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    6. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1981. "The collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970's," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 145-165.
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