IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v35y2023i1p333-355.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of public opinion and policy response under proportional and plurality elections

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony J. McGann
  • Sebastian Dellepiane‐Avellaneda
  • John Bartle

Abstract

We compare the patterns of adjustment of government policy to changes in public opinion in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. These countries are similar in many ways, except that the United Kingdom has plurality elections and single‐party government, while the Netherlands has proportional representation (PR) and coalition government. This provides the first application of the Macro Polity approach to a country with PR elections. We find that government policy in the Netherlands is highly responsive to public opinion. This cannot be the result of alternation of government, but instead must be the result of some other process, such as coalition bargaining. In the United Kingdom, however, the dynamic of adjustment is far more complex. Alternation of government does not produce responsiveness, but rather seems to get in the way of it. This leads to an over‐correction dynamic in which policy can be out of line with public opinion for long periods of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony J. McGann & Sebastian Dellepiane‐Avellaneda & John Bartle, 2023. "Dynamics of public opinion and policy response under proportional and plurality elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 333-355, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:35:y:2023:i:1:p:333-355
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12217
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12217?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grant, Taylor & Lebo, Matthew J., 2016. "Error Correction Methods with Political Time Series," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 3-30, January.
    2. Comanor, William S., 1976. "The median voter rule and the theory of political choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1-2), pages 169-177.
    3. Iversen, Torben & Soskice, David, 2006. "Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalitions: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 165-181, May.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    6. von Hagen, Jurgen & Harden, Ian J., 1995. "Budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 771-779, April.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    8. Bianco, William T. & Jeliazkov, Ivan & Sened, Itai, 2004. "The Uncovered Set and the Limits of Legislative Action," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 256-276, July.
    9. Matt Golder & Jacek Stramski, 2010. "Ideological Congruence and Electoral Institutions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 90-106, January.
    10. McGann, Anthony J., 2014. "Estimating the Political Center from Aggregate Data: An Item Response Theory Alternative to the Stimson Dyad Ratios Algorithm," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 115-129, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heipertz, Martin, 2003. "The Stability and Growth Pact - Not the best but better than nothing. Reviewing the debate on fiscal policy in Europe's Monetary Union," MPIfG Working Paper 03/10, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    2. Dorothée Allain-Dupré & Claudia Hulbert & Margaux Vincent, 2017. "Subnational Infrastructure Investment in OECD Countries: Trends and Key Governance Levers," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2017/05, OECD Publishing.
    3. Milan Deskar-Skrbic & Darjan Milutinovic, 2021. "Design of fiscal consolidation packages and model-based fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 1-61.
    4. Asztalos, Viktor, 2015. "Politikai változások a költségvetési kiigazítások tükrében [Political changes in the light of fiscal adjustments]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1196-1210.
    5. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    6. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    7. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo.
    8. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
    10. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    11. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    12. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 2003. "The Relationship Between Large Fiscal Adjustments And Short‐Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 41-58, January.
    13. Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case-Study Approach," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 293-342, September.
    14. Szapáry, György & Orbán, Gábor, 2004. "A stabilitási és növekedési paktum az új tagállamok szemszögéből [The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 810-831.
    15. K. Peren Arin & Faik Koray, 2005. "Fiscal Policy And Economic Activity: Us Evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2005-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2022. "Fiscal episodes in the Economic and Monetary Union: Elasticities and non‐Keynesian effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 571-593, January.
    17. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan, 2001. "Expansionary fiscal contractions?," Working Papers 200103, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    18. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
    19. Toshihiro Ihori & Atsushi Nakamoto, 2005. "Japan's fiscal policy and fiscal reconstruction," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 153-172, November.
    20. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:35:y:2023:i:1:p:333-355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.