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Economywide Impact of Maize Export Bans on Agricultural Growth and Household Welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis

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  • Xinshen Diao
  • Adam Kennedy

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="dpr12143-abs-0001"> Export bans have been frequently used by developing countries in recent years in an attempt to ensure domestic food supplies and insulate domestic market prices from international price hikes. This article uses Tanzania to examine the impact of export bans using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that banning cross-border maize exports has very little effect on the national food price index and that the benefits from lower maize prices are captured primarily by urban households, while maize producer prices decrease significantly. The export ban further decreases the wage rate for low-skilled labour and the returns to land, while returns to non-agricultural capital and wage rates for skilled labour increase, further hurting poor rural households and thus increasing poverty for the country as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinshen Diao & Adam Kennedy, 2016. "Economywide Impact of Maize Export Bans on Agricultural Growth and Household Welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 34(1), pages 101-134, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:34:y:2016:i:1:p:101-134
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/dpr.2016.34.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Romy Santpoort, 2020. "The Drivers of Maize Area Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa. How Policies to Boost Maize Production Overlook the Interests of Smallholder Farmers," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Edward Martey & Edward Ebo Onumah & Justina Adwoa Onumah & Dela‐Dem Doe Fiankor, 2024. "Non‐tariff measures and household welfare: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1150-1169, March.
    3. Petro Maziku & Robert Mashenene, 2024. "Effect of Non-tariff Barriers on Maize Production and Marketing by Smallholder Farmers in Tanzania," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 150-161, February.
    4. Christian Estmann, 2023. "Trade liberalisation, market behaviour and food security: Evidence from Tanzania," DERG working paper series 23-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    5. Alisher Tleubayev & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Linde Gotz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68, October.
    6. Rodolfo Stucchi & Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman & Martin A. Rossi, 2018. "The Impact of Export Restrictions on Production: A Synthetic Control Approach," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 147-173, May.
    7. Gronau, Steven & Winter, Etti, 2018. "Social Accounting Matrix: A user manual for village economies," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-636, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Aragie, Emerta & Pauw, Karl & Pernechele, Valentina, 2018. "Achieving food security and industrial development in Malawi: Are export restrictions the solution?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Wilson Charles Wilson & Maja Slingerland & Frederick P. Baijukya & Hannah Zanten & Simon Oosting & Ken E. Giller, 2021. "Integrating the soybean-maize-chicken value chains to attain nutritious diets in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1595-1612, December.
    10. Wang, Wenting & Wei, Longbao, 2019. "Impacts of agricultural price support policies on price variability and welfare: evidence from China’s soybean market," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 288334, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Emerta Aragie & Jean Balié, 2021. "Public spending on agricultural productivity and rural commercialization: A comparison of impacts using an economy‐wide approach," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(S1), pages 21-41, August.
    12. Jaah, Mkupete & Fintel, Dieter von & Burger, Ronelle, 2021. "Maize Price Shock, Agriculture Production and Children Nutrition Outcomes in Tanzania," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314974, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Porteous, Obie, 2017. "Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of African maize," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 17-26.
    14. Rajabu Joseph Kangile & Charles Peter Mgeni & Zena Theopist Mpenda & Stefan Sieber, 2020. "The Determinants of Farmers’ Choice of Markets for Staple Food Commodities in Dodoma and Morogoro, Tanzania," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, April.
    15. Dorosh, Paul A. & Kennedy, Adam & Torero, Máximo, 2016. "El Niño and cereal production shortfalls: Policies for resilience and food security in 2016 and beyond:," Policy briefs 978-089629-988-7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Maximilian Koppenberg & Martina Bozzola & Tobias Dalhaus & Stefan Hirsch, 2021. "Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 25-43, January.
    17. Hübler, Michael & Wiese, Malin & Braun, Marius & Damster, Johannes, 2024. "The distributional effects of CO2 pricing at home and at the border on German income groups," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Fuje,Habtamu Neda & Pullabhotla,Hemant Kumar, 2020. "Impact of Grain Trade Policies on Prices and Welfare : Evidence from Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9436, The World Bank.
    19. Tleubayev, Alisher & Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68.
    20. Channa, Hira & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Feleke, Shiferaw & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2022. "Overcoming smallholder farmers’ post-harvest constraints through harvest loans and storage technology: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Aragie, Emerta Asaminew & Balié, Jean & Magrini, Emiliano & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2016. "Can a cereal export ban affect a net food-importing economy? The case of Ethiopia," Conference papers 332747, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    22. Weiguo Fan & Zhicheng Gao & Nan Chen & Hejie Wei & Zihan Xu & Nachuan Lu & Xuechao Wang & Peng Zhang & Jiahui Ren & Sergio Ulgiati & Xiaobin Dong, 2018. "It is Worth Pondering Whether a Carbon Tax is Suitable for China’s Agricultural-Related Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-26, August.

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