IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v41y2023i1p41-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial conditions and the well‐being of the real estate sector—A bottom‐up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Sun
  • Matthew S. Yiu

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross‐border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well‐being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom‐up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.‐China trade war and COVID‐19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Sun & Matthew S. Yiu, 2023. "Financial conditions and the well‐being of the real estate sector—A bottom‐up default analysis on five ASEAN economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 41-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:41:y:2023:i:1:p:41-60
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12543
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12543
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/coep.12543?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    2. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eme:hppsss:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:115-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," ISER Discussion Paper 1197, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicu Sprincean, 2019. "Early Warning Indicators For Macrofinancial Activity In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 23, pages 137-162, June.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    3. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Lozano-Vivas, Ana & Papadimitri, Panagiota & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2020. "Macroprudential policies, corporate governance and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 126-142.
    4. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    5. Xu, Si & He, Xiaoyi & Cao, Chunfang, 2023. "Struggle for survival in credit crunch: The effect of interest rate deregulation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Haas, Adam, 2021. "In search of distress risk in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Sigrist, Fabio & Leuenberger, Nicola, 2023. "Machine learning for corporate default risk: Multi-period prediction, frailty correlation, loan portfolios, and tail probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1390-1406.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    9. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    10. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Lee, Dongwon, 2023. "Financial integration and international risk spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Kei-Ichiro Inaba, 2020. "A global look into stock market comovements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 517-555, August.
    13. Moro Russ A. & Härdle Wolfgang K. & Schäfer Dorothea, 2017. "Company rating with support vector machines," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 55-67, June.
    14. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2020. "Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2021. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed-Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 361-379, March.
    17. Huzaifa Shamsi, 2024. "Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Assessing Firm Risk, Environmental Commitments, and Information Channels in the wake of COVID-19," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    18. Shih, Yi-Cheng & Wang, Yao & Zhong, Rui & Ma, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Corporate environmental responsibility and default risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Muhammad Atif & Searat Ali, 2021. "Environmental, social and governance disclosure and default risk," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 3937-3959, December.
    20. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2017. "Is there a competition-stability trade-off in European banking?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 199-215.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:41:y:2023:i:1:p:41-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.