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Financial conditions and the well‐being of the real estate sector—A bottom‐up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

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  • Wei Sun
  • Matthew S. Yiu

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross‐border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well‐being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom‐up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.‐China trade war and COVID‐19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Sun & Matthew S. Yiu, 2023. "Financial conditions and the well‐being of the real estate sector—A bottom‐up default analysis on five ASEAN economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 41-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:41:y:2023:i:1:p:41-60
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    2. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
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    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eme:hppsss:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:115-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 115500, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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