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The Policy Anticipation Hypothesis: Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market

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  • John D. Burger

Abstract

In an era of increasingly transparent policy making by the Federal Reserve, market participants appear to interpret each economic announcement based on the implication for monetary policy. As a result, when macroeconomic news arrives economic agents revise their expectations of upcoming policy decisions and interest rates move accordingly. This article provides empirical support for this policy anticipation hypothesis utilizing the Federal funds futures market to proxy for policy expectations. The results indicate that once one controls for the role of policy anticipation the impact of many announcements on bond yields becomes statistically insignificant. (JEL E4, E5, G1)

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger, 2004. "The Policy Anticipation Hypothesis: Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(4), pages 544-554, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:4:p:544-554
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byh041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
    2. Jeffery D. Amato & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Communication and Monetary Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 495-503.
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    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
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    6. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    7. John B. Carlson & Jean M. McIntire & James B. Thomson, 1995. "Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 20-30.
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    9. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. "Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
    10. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
    11. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    3. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2016. "Openness and Structural Labour Market Reforms: Counterfactuals for Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Lapp, John S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 2012. "The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-379.
    5. Barbara Hutniczak & Niels Vestergaard & Dale Squires, 2019. "Policy Change Anticipation in the Buyback Context," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 111-132, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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