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Should China Join the New Trans‐Pacific Partnership?

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  • Peter A. Petri
  • Michael G. Plummer

Abstract

After President Donald Trump's ill‐advised pullout from the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) and despite the absence of the US, the remaining 11 Asian and Pacific countries agreed on a deal, renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The accord took effect on 30 December 2018 and provides rigorous, up‐to‐date rules for Asia‐Pacific trade, but excludes the region's two biggest economies: the US and China. In this paper, we calculate that Chinese membership in the CPTPP would yield large economic and political benefits to China and other members. The CPTPP, in its current form, would generate global income gains estimated at US$147bn annually. If China were to join, these gains would quadruple to US$632bn, or a quarter more than in the original TPP with the US. But to join the CPTPP, China would have to undertake unprecedented reforms and manage complex political challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2020. "Should China Join the New Trans‐Pacific Partnership?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(2), pages 18-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:28:y:2020:i:2:p:18-36
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    2. C. Fred Bergsten & Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Sean Miner & Tyler Moran, 2014. "Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6918, April.
    3. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Shujiro Urata & Fan Zhai, 2017. "Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States," Working Paper Series WP17-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bin Sheng & Chenxin Jin, 2022. "An Evaluation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: Market Access and Trading Rules," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 49-74, September.
    2. Jaewon Jung, 2022. "The Effects of China’s Participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): A Quantitative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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