IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v28y2020i2p18-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Should China Join the New Trans‐Pacific Partnership?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter A. Petri
  • Michael G. Plummer

Abstract

After President Donald Trump's ill‐advised pullout from the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) and despite the absence of the US, the remaining 11 Asian and Pacific countries agreed on a deal, renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The accord took effect on 30 December 2018 and provides rigorous, up‐to‐date rules for Asia‐Pacific trade, but excludes the region's two biggest economies: the US and China. In this paper, we calculate that Chinese membership in the CPTPP would yield large economic and political benefits to China and other members. The CPTPP, in its current form, would generate global income gains estimated at US$147bn annually. If China were to join, these gains would quadruple to US$632bn, or a quarter more than in the original TPP with the US. But to join the CPTPP, China would have to undertake unprecedented reforms and manage complex political challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2020. "Should China Join the New Trans‐Pacific Partnership?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(2), pages 18-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:28:y:2020:i:2:p:18-36
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12319
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cwe.12319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    2. C. Fred Bergsten & Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Sean Miner & Tyler Moran, 2014. "Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6918, January.
    3. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Shujiro Urata & Fan Zhai, 2017. "Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States," Working Paper Series WP17-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bin Sheng & Chenxin Jin, 2022. "An Evaluation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: Market Access and Trading Rules," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 49-74, September.
    2. Jaewon Jung, 2022. "The Effects of China’s Participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): A Quantitative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Dimos Chatzinikolaou & Charis Michael Vlados, 2024. "New Globalization and Energy Transition: Insights from Recent Global Developments," Societies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Fugazza, Marco & Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2008. "Non-tariff barriers in CGE models: How useful for policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 475-490.
    5. Roberto Roson & Kazuhiko Oyamada, 2014. "Modeling Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade: Do Structural Effects Matter?," IEFE Working Papers 70, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    7. Itakura, Ken & Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Examining Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in a CGE Model," Conference papers 332513, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Zhai, Fan, 2010. "The Benefits of Regional Infrastructure Investment in Asia: A Quantitative Exploration," ADBI Working Papers 223, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2018. "Did Abenomics Succeed?: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Christoph Boehringer & Edward Balistreri & Thomas Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," Working Papers V-415-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    11. Tao Xiang & Jikun Huang & d’Artis Kancs & Scott Rozelle & Jo Swinnen, 2012. "Food Standards and Welfare: General Equilibrium Effects," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 223-244, June.
    12. KAWASAKI Kenichi, 2014. "The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific," Discussion papers 14009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Roson, Roberto & Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Introducing Melitz-Style Firm Heterogeneity in CGE Models: Technical Aspects and Implications," Conference papers 332433, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2013. "Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models," IDE Discussion Papers 380, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    16. Boris A. Kheyfets, 2018. "Globalization does not End, it Becomes Another," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies, vol. 11(1).
    17. Kazuhiko Oyamada & Kaoru Nabeshima & Etsuyo Michida, 2015. "Analyses of EU RoHS/ELV Directives Based on an AGE Model with Melitz-type Trade Specification," EcoMod2015 8304, EcoMod.
    18. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    19. Ryan Rutkowski, 2015. "Service Sector Reform in China," Policy Briefs PB15-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Oyamada, Kazuhiko & Nabeshima, Kaoru & Michida, Etsuyo, 2015. "Simulation Analysis of EU ELV/RoHS Directives Based on an Applied General Equilibrium Model with Melitz-type Trade Specification," Conference papers 332610, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:28:y:2020:i:2:p:18-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.