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Reassessing the Lewis Turning Point in China: Evidence from 70,000 Rural Households

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  • Yuan Zhang
  • Ting Shao
  • Qi Dong

Abstract

There is no convincing evidence to prove that China's Lewis turning point (LTP) arrived in 2004–2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami (1968) to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China's economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China's eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China's rural economy will face three key tasks: safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Zhang & Ting Shao & Qi Dong, 2018. "Reassessing the Lewis Turning Point in China: Evidence from 70,000 Rural Households," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(1), pages 4-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:26:y:2018:i:1:p:4-17
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peng Jia & Yang Du & Meiyan Wang, 2017. "Rural Labor Migration and Poverty Reduction in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 45-64, November.
    2. Zhang, Xiaobo & Yang, Jin & Wang, Shenglin, 2011. "China has reached the Lewis turning point," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 542-554.
    3. Minami, Ryoshin, 1968. "The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 19(3), pages 220-229, July.
    4. Hongbin Li & Lei Li & Binzhen Wu & Yanyan Xiong, 2012. "The End of Cheap Chinese Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 57-74, Fall.
    5. Ryoshin Minami, 1968. "The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 380-402.
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    Cited by:

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    5. He, Ming & Chen, Yang & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2021. "The effects of urban transformation on productivity spillovers in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 473-488.
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    9. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Yang, Chuxiao & Wu, Haitao, 2021. "Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

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