IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v23y2015i3p110-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is There Excess Liquidity in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Tie Ying Liu
  • Chi Wei Su
  • Xu Zhao Jiang
  • Tsangyao Chang

Abstract

In this paper, we developed the recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2013) and used them to identify the beginning and the end of potential excess liquidity in the Chinese monetary market during the period from 1992 to 2013. The result indicates that excess liquidity existed from the third quarter of 2002 to 2013. The analysis shows that since 2003, the inflationary pressure of excess liquidity has remained high. We provide evidence supporting the money illusion hypothesis in China. The recursive unit root test is suited to practical implementation with time series and delivers a consistent date-stamping strategy for determining the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Tie Ying Liu & Chi Wei Su & Xu Zhao Jiang & Tsangyao Chang, 2015. "Is There Excess Liquidity in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 110-126, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:3:p:110-126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cwe.12117
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Xu, Yingfeng, 1998. "Money Demand in China: A Disaggregate Approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 544-564, September.
    3. Peng, Duan & Bajona, Claustre, 2008. "China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 138-151, June.
    4. Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons: Background Paper," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 395-450, February.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    6. Borensztein, Eduardo & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1996. "Accounting for China's Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 224-228, May.
    7. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    9. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    11. Mr. R. S Craig & Mr. Changchun Hua, 2011. "Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong SAR: Implications for Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/277, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Inflation and China's monetary policy reaction function: 2002-2013," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 159-170, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Milton Friedman, 1971. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie71-1.
    14. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.
    15. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September.
    16. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    17. Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 2007/014, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Wu, Ying, 2009. "Measuring China's monetary sterilization and autonomy in the era of globalization: 1995-2005," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 336-347, May.
    19. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    20. Chengsi Zhang & Hong Pang, 2008. "Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, July.
    21. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    22. Chan Lily & Ng Heng Tiong & Rishi Ramchand, 2012. "A cluster analysis approach to examining Singapore’s property market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 43-53, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Mr. Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," IMF Working Papers 2010/274, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Zhang, Wenlang, 2009. "China's monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-484, September.
    25. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    26. Polleit, Thorsten & Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 2005. "Measures of excess liquidity," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 65, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    27. Miao, Jianjun & Xie, Danyang, 2013. "Economic growth under money illusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 84-103.
    28. Schabert, Andreas, 2009. "Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 333-344, June.
    29. Chow, Gregory C. & Wang, Peng, 2010. "The empirics of inflation in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 28-30, October.
    30. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2012. "A New Test for Rational Speculative Bubbles using Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Interwar German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 18599597, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    31. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising too Fast in Hong Kong SAR?," IMF Working Papers 2010/273, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tie‐Ying Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3531-3549, July.
    2. Mikhail Stolbov, 2019. "Was there a bubble in the ICO market?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2448-2456.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tie-Ying Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "China's housing bubble burst?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 361-389, April.
    2. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
    4. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    6. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    7. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Crossman, 2014. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets," Working Papers 64908732, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    9. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    10. Su-Ling TSAI & Hsien-Hung KUNG & Kai-yin Allison HAGA, 2015. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in the 35 Large and Medium Cities of Real Estate Price in China," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 275-290, Winter.
    11. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:275-290 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    13. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    15. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    16. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    17. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Tsangyao & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Policy-driven or market-driven? Evidence from steam coal price bubbles in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Tao, Ran & Si, Deng-Kui, 2018. "Testing for multiple bubbles in bitcoin markets: A generalized sup ADF test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-63.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    21. Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Țăran, Alexandra-Mădălina, 2023. "Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    22. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:3:p:110-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.