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An Examination of the Relationship Between U.S. and Canadian Durum Wheat Prices

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  • Atanu Ghoshray

Abstract

Durum wheat is one of the commodities for which there is intense trade competition between the United States and Canada. This article examines the relationship between Canadian and U.S. durum wheat prices using cointegration and an asymmetric error correction approach. The overall results suggest that a long run relation holds between the U.S. and Canadian durum wheat prices. The U.S. price responds to restore the equilibrium relationship with the corresponding Canadian price, while the Canadian price evolves independently. Using tests for structural change it is revealed that changes in Canadian domestic policy (the repeal of the WGTA) had an effect on this long run relation. Since the withdrawal of the WGTA, quality differences in durum wheat for both countries seem to matter in the dynamics and integration of U.S. and Canadian durum wheat prices. Le blé dur est l'une des denrées pour lesquelles les États‐Unis et le Canada se livrent une concurrence féroce. Le présent article examine la relation entre les prix du blé dur américain et canadien en utilisant la cointégration et un modèle à correction d'erreur asymétrique. Les résultats globaux semblent indiquer qu'il existe depuis longtemps une relation entre les prix du blé américain et canadien. Le prix américain réagit pour rétablir la relation d'équilibre avec le prix canadien correspondant, tandis que le prix canadien évolue de façon indépendante. Des tests effectués pour vérifier les répercussions des changements structurels ont indiqué que des changements dans la politique intérieure canadienne (notamment l'abrogation de la Loi sur le transport du grain de l'Ouest ‐ LTGO) ont eu une influence sur cette relation. Depuis l'abolition de la LTGO, des différences de qualité de blé dur dans les deux pays semblent avoir de l'importance dans la dynamique et l'intégration des prix du blé dur canadien et américain.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanu Ghoshray, 2007. "An Examination of the Relationship Between U.S. and Canadian Durum Wheat Prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 55(1), pages 49-62, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:55:y:2007:i:1:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2007.00079.x
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    1. Ingco, Merlinda & Ng, Francis, 1998. "Distortionary effects of state trading in agriculture : issues for the next round of negotiations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1915, The World Bank.
    2. Doan, Darcie & Paddock, Brian & Dyer, Jan, 2003. "Grain Transportation Policy and Transformation in Western Canadian Agriculture," Policy Reform and Adjustment Workshop, October 23-25, 2003, Imperial College London, Wye Campus 15748, International Agricultural Policy Reform and Adjustment Project (IAPRAP).
    3. Koo, Won W. & Uhm, Ihn H., 2000. "U.S.-Canada Border Disputes In Grains: Dynamic Interface Between The Free Trade Agreement And Trade Remedy Laws," Agricultural Economics Reports 23267, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    4. Young, Linda M., 1998. "Wheat Quality: Trends and Issues," Conference Papers 258709, Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Trade Research Center.
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    6. Atanu Ghoshray, 2008. "Asymmetric price adjustment of Ukrainian feed wheat export prices in relation to U.S. maize exports: A Note," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(2), pages 1-8.
    7. Lin, Yu-Hui & Chen, Dickens & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2010. "The Impacts of Direct Tax Reform on Taiwan's Economy-A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 332029, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Goychuk, Kateryna & Meyers, William H., 2013. "Short- and long-run relationships between Ukrainian barley and world feed grain export prices," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143085, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
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