IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v63y2024is1p23-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determining the impact of the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus on fertility rates using a synthetic control analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Genevieve Reich

Abstract

The longstanding issue of declining fertility in developed nations motivates a revaluation of the effectiveness of fertility‐targeted policies. This thesis focuses on the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus, a past pronatalist incentive offering a lump sum financial transfer for every child born after 1 July 2004. We employ the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual scenario for Australia in the absence of the policy's introduction. Using aggregate country‐level data from the World Bank World Indicator's Database from 1998 to 2012, we carefully select suitable Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries as control units and economic indicators to include as covariates. Our primary specification reveals a 6.82% increase in total fertility between 2005 and 2012, induced by the ABB. Robustness tests, including various model specifications, consistently confirm a positive fertility effect. This comparative case study provides a comprehensive analysis of the ABB's impact, emphasising the significance of methodological choices in assessing fertility‐related policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Genevieve Reich, 2024. "Determining the impact of the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus on fertility rates using a synthetic control analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(S1), pages 23-32, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:63:y:2024:i:s1:p:23-32
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12345
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8454.12345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    2. Ashok Kaul & Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer & Manuel Schieler, 2022. "Standard Synthetic Control Methods: The Case of Using All Preintervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1362-1376, June.
    3. Caroline Chuard & Patrick Chuard‐Keller, 2021. "Baby bonus in Switzerland: Effects on fertility, newborn health, and birth‐scheduling," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2092-2123, September.
    4. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    7. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Dominik Hangartner & Alex James Turner & Silviya Nikolova & Matt Sutton, 2016. "Examination of the Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Health Policies with Multiple Treated Units," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1514-1528, December.
    8. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    2. Chan, Ho Fai & Gangl, Katharina & Supriyadi, Mohammad Wangsit & Torgler, Benno, 2023. "The effects of increased monitoring on high wealth individuals: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Indonesia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 244-267.
    3. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    5. Cummins Joseph & Miller Douglas L. & Smith Brock & Simon David, 2024. "Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 67-95, January.
    6. Lennard, Jason & Kenny, Seán & Horgan, Emma, 2023. "Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966," CEPR Discussion Papers 18711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    8. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Ketevani Kapanadze, 2021. "Checkmate! Losing with Borders, Winning with Centers. The Case of European Integration," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp716, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. Omid Zamani & Craig Chibanda & Mavis Boimah & Collins Asante-Addo, 2025. "Aligning policy for success in developing countries: evidence from the poultry sector of Ghana," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    12. Amos Z. B. Flomo & Elissaios Papyrakis & Natascha Wagner, 2023. "Evaluating the economic effects of the Ebola virus disease in Liberia: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1478-1504, August.
    13. Zhang, Haibo & Di Maria, Corrado & Ghezelayagh, Bahar & Shan, Yuli, 2024. "Climate policy in emerging economies: Evidence from China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Panel, Sophie & Pietri, Antoine, 2022. "God did not save the kings: Environmental consequences of the 1982 Falklands War," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    15. Lessmann, Christian & Kramer, Niklas, 2024. "The effect of cap-and-trade on sectoral emissions: Evidence from California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    17. Rok Spruk, Mitja Kovac, Nuno Garoupa, 2024. "The boulevard of broken dreams? Long-run effects of labor-managed socialism," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 21(2), pages 167-210, December.
    18. Justin C. Wiltshire, 2023. "Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How A Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets," Department Discussion Papers 2304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    19. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private bank money vs central bank money: A historical lesson for CBDC introduction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Justin C. Wiltsire, 2024. "Lifting the Cap on Non-Resident University Enrollment: Evidence from Wisconsin," Department Discussion Papers 2408, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:63:y:2024:i:s1:p:23-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.