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Determining the impact of the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus on fertility rates using a synthetic control analysis

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  • Genevieve Reich

Abstract

The longstanding issue of declining fertility in developed nations motivates a revaluation of the effectiveness of fertility‐targeted policies. This thesis focuses on the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus, a past pronatalist incentive offering a lump sum financial transfer for every child born after 1 July 2004. We employ the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual scenario for Australia in the absence of the policy's introduction. Using aggregate country‐level data from the World Bank World Indicator's Database from 1998 to 2012, we carefully select suitable Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries as control units and economic indicators to include as covariates. Our primary specification reveals a 6.82% increase in total fertility between 2005 and 2012, induced by the ABB. Robustness tests, including various model specifications, consistently confirm a positive fertility effect. This comparative case study provides a comprehensive analysis of the ABB's impact, emphasising the significance of methodological choices in assessing fertility‐related policies.

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  • Genevieve Reich, 2024. "Determining the impact of the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus on fertility rates using a synthetic control analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(S1), pages 23-32, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:63:y:2024:i:s1:p:23-32
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    2. Ashok Kaul & Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer & Manuel Schieler, 2022. "Standard Synthetic Control Methods: The Case of Using All Preintervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1362-1376, June.
    3. Caroline Chuard & Patrick Chuard‐Keller, 2021. "Baby bonus in Switzerland: Effects on fertility, newborn health, and birth‐scheduling," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2092-2123, September.
    4. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
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    6. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    7. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Dominik Hangartner & Alex James Turner & Silviya Nikolova & Matt Sutton, 2016. "Examination of the Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Health Policies with Multiple Treated Units," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1514-1528, December.
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