IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v47y2008i1p38-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Agricultural Terms Of Trade In Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis Of Trends And Movements, 1952–2006

Author

Listed:
  • AKHAND AKHTAR HOSSAIN

Abstract

This paper investigates the trends and movements of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade in Bangladesh with annual data for the period 1952–2006. The ADF and KPSS tests results suggest that both agricultural and industrial prices have a unit root while the agricultural terms of trade is trend‐stationary. These results remain unchanged if allowance is made in the unit root test for the possibility of a structural break during 1971–1975 (when Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan and experienced economic shocks) by applying the two‐step procedure of Perron (1989). A simple Nerlovian agricultural price determination model is specified within the framework of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The Johansen cointegration test results for the periods 1953–2006 and 1973–2006 suggest that there exists a cointegral relationship between agricultural prices, industrial prices, per‐capita real income and the real exchange rate between the Bangladeshi taka and the US dollar under the restriction that per‐capita real income and the real exchange rate are ‘long‐run forcing variables’ in the sense of Pesaran and Shin (1995), and Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1996). The paper estimates a four‐variable vector error‐correction (VEC) model and conducts an impulse response analysis for the post‐independence period, 1973–2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2008. "The Agricultural Terms Of Trade In Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis Of Trends And Movements, 1952–2006," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 38-52, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:47:y:2008:i:1:p:38-52
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2008.00328.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2008.00328.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2008.00328.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    4. Raaj Kumar Sah & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1987. "Price Scissors and the Structure of the Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 109-134.
    5. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gulzar Ali & Ghulam Mustafa & Said Zamin Shah, 2020. "Performance of Agriculture Sector in Foreign Trade of Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 5(1), pages 12-23, March.
    2. Sujan Piya & Akira Kiminami & Hironori Yagi, 2010. "Evaluating the Impact of Geographic Concentration on Nepalese Agricultural Export," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(2), pages 207-222, September.
    3. Bernhard G. Gunter & Valeria Vargas Sejas, 2017. "Free Falling Terms of Trade Despite Industrialization: The Case of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 33, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Johannes W. Fedderke & John M. Luiz, 2005. "Does Human Generate Social and Institutional Capital? Exploring Evidence From Time Series Data in a Middle Income Country," Working Papers 029, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Sylvia Kaufmann & Andreas Resch, 2008. "Structural breaks in Austrian foreign trade with Eastern Europe during the early 1970s," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(5), pages 465-479, December.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany: long-run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1409-1423.
    5. Waliullah & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Rehmatullah Kakar & Wakeel Khan, 2010. "The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, Jan-Jun.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke & John M. Luiz, 2006. "Fractionalization and Long-Run Economic Growth: Webs and Direction of Association between the Economic and the Social – South Africa as a Time Series Case Study," Working Papers 022, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Jenifer Piesse & Bruce Allen Hearn, 2012. "The law of one price: an examination of price integration between Europe and regional markets in Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3169-3193, August.
    8. Johannes W. Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 064, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres, 2013. "Overvaluation of the real exchange rate and the Dutch Disease: the Colombian case," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10930, Universidad EAFIT.
    10. Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    11. Ojiambo Elphas & Jacob Oduor & Mburu Tom & Wawire Nelson, 2015. "Working Paper 226 - Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth in Kenya," Working Paper Series 2169, African Development Bank.
    12. Iyoboyi, Martins, 2019. "Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria," Empirical Economic Review, Department of Economics and Statistics, Dr Hassan Murad School of Management, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, vol. 2(1), pages 83-116.
    13. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Unemployment Invariance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(3), pages 297-317, August.
    14. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    15. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    16. Johannes W. Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2017. "Schumpeterian and semi-endogenous productivity growth explanations," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(1), pages 111-137, January.
    17. Johannes W. Fedderke & Witness Simbanegavi, 2008. "Price Elasticities and Pricing Power in Emerging Markets: The Case of Petrochemicals Derived Plastics in South Africa," Working Papers 078, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. J. W. Fedderke & J. M. Luiz, 2007. "Fractionalization and long-run economic growth: webs and direction of association between the economic and the social -- South Africa as a time series case study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 1037-1052.
    19. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Zabir Sajjid, 2005. "The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 87-99, Jul-Dec.
    20. Matteo Bonato & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the financialization of commodities," GRI Working Papers 215, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:47:y:2008:i:1:p:38-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.