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The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Apporach

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  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad
  • Sajjid, Muhammad Zabir

Abstract

In this paper we investigate both the long and short run relationship between real money balances, real income, inflation rate,foreign interest rate and real effective exchange rate with reference to Pakistan over the period 1982Q2-2002Q4 using ARDL apporach which is a newly developed econometric technique. The estimate results indicate that in the long run real income,inflation rate, foreign interest rate and real effective exchane rate have a significant impact on real money balances in Pakistan. The dynamics of real money demand show that the effects of rate of inflation,foreign interest rate and the real effective exchange rate are much smaller in the short run than long run. the results also reveal that the demand for real money balances in Pakistan is stable, despite the economic reforms pursuede by the government since the late 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Sajjid, Muhammad Zabir, 2005. "The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Apporach," MPRA Paper 6752, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6752
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    Cited by:

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    2. Muhammad Akbar, 2023. "Effects of inflation uncertainty and exchange rate volatility on money demand in Pakistan: Bayesian econometric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1470-1487, April.
    3. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2013. "Demand for Money in Nepal: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(1), pages 21-36, April.
    4. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    5. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Demand for Money and its Stability in Tanzania," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-192, June.
    6. Bernhard Ozofere Ishioro, 2015. "The Long-Run Relationship between Foreign Reserves Inflows and Domestic Credit: Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(2), pages 18-38, April.
    7. Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele & Mom Aloysius Njong, 2020. "Capital flight and diamond exports in the Central African Republic: The role of political governance crisis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 362-374, September.
    8. Dawood MAMOON & Umbreen IFTIKHAR & Muhammad Shahid HASSAN, 2017. "Relationship of Fiscal Discipline and Household Income on Money Demand Function in Sri Lanka," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, March.
    9. KHAN, Muhammad Arshad, 2008. "Long-Run And Short-Run Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Reserves Flows And Domestic Credit In Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1), pages 61-78.
    10. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2012. "A Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Trade Determinants of Nepal: Gravity Model Approach," NRB Working Paper 12/2012, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    11. Nazif Durmaz & Tairu Jie, 2024. "Money demand in Mexico: a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 20-28.
    12. Hassan, Shahid & Ali, Umbreen & Dawood, Mamoon, 2016. "Measuring Money Demand Function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 75496, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; real money balances; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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