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Are Chinese Stock Markets Increasing Integration With Other Markets In The Greater China Region And Other Major Markets?

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  • GARY GANG TIAN

Abstract

This paper investigates the cointegrating and long‐term causal relationships between the Shanghai A and B‐share market, and between these two markets and the Hong Kong, the Taiwanese, the Japanese and the US market of two sub periods between July 1993 and March 2007. On the basis of a new Granger non‐causality test procedure developed by Toda‐Yamamoto (1995) and Johansen's (1988) cointegration test, my results suggest that a long‐term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been merged between the Chinese A‐share market and the other markets in greater China region as well as the US market during the post‐crisis period which covers the period since Chinese A‐share market was opened to the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) in 2002. I also found that the Shanghai A‐share market uni‐directionally Granger‐causes the other regional markets after the Asian financial crisis, while the A‐share market and Hong Kong H‐share market have had a significant feedback relationship since then. However, I found no evidence there has been cointegrating relationship between Shanghai B‐share market and any other market ever since the B‐share market was opened to the local retail investors in 2001.

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  • Gary Gang Tian, 2007. "Are Chinese Stock Markets Increasing Integration With Other Markets In The Greater China Region And Other Major Markets?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 240-253, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:46:y:2007:i:3:p:240-253
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2007.00317.x
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    1. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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    1. Meng, Xiangyi & Zhang, Jian-Wei & Xu, Jingjing & Guo, Hong, 2015. "Quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model for daily price-limited stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 154-160.
    2. Ahlgren, Niklas & Sjö, Bo & Zhang, Jianhua, 2008. "Panel Cointegration of Chinese A and B Shares," Working Papers in Economics 300, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Xiangyi Meng & Jian-Wei Zhang & Jingjing Xu & Hong Guo, 2014. "Quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model for daily price-limited stock markets," Papers 1405.4490, arXiv.org.
    4. José Carlos Vides & Antonio A. Golpe & Jesús Iglesias, 2018. "How did the Sovereign debt crisis affect the Euro financial integration? A fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 685-706, November.
    5. Ye, George L., 2014. "The interactions between China and US stock markets: New perspectives," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 331-342.
    6. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Stephen Morgan, 2008. "Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Bank Stock Prices in China: A Causality Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/25, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 521-541.
    8. Pan, Qunxing & Mei, Xiaowen & Gao, Tianqing, 2022. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Cai, Charlie X. & McGuinness, Paul B. & Zhang, Qi, 2011. "The pricing dynamics of cross-listed securities: The case of Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2123-2136, August.
    10. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
    11. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Yijing Shen & Hsin- hui I.H. Whited, 2013. "Cross- Strait linkages: historica perspective and empirical evidence," Chapters, in: Peter C.Y. Chow (ed.), Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait, chapter 1, pages 1-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hu, Te-Chung & Hu, Hui-Ting, 2015. "Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 84-98.

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