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Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries

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  • Konya, Laszlo

Abstract

This article is a supplement to Kónya (2004) which investigates the possibility of the export-led growth and growth-driven export hypotheses by testing for Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-five OECD countries. In Kónya (2004) two complementary testing strategies were applied. First, depending on the time series properties of the data, causality was tested with Wald tests within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels and/or in first-differences. Then, with no need for pre-testing, a modified Wald (MWald) procedure was used in augmented level VAR systems. For brevity, the results of the unit root, cointegration and MWald tests were not reported in Kónya (2004). The aim of the current article is to fill in this gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_10
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    2. Ji, In Bae & Chung, Chanjin, 2012. "Causality Between Captive Supplies and Cash Market Prices in the U.S. Cattle Procurement Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    4. Rashmi Gupta, 2020. "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model," GATR Journals jber189, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    5. Edgardo Sica, 2007. "Causality between Energy and Economic Growth: the Italian case," Quaderni DSEMS 03-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    6. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    7. Precup Mihai, 2019. "The Economic Growth and the Opportunity for the Private Equity Funds to Divest: An Empirical Analysis for Eastern Europe," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Saida Daly & Mohamed Abdouli, 2023. "The Nexus between Environmental Quality, Economic Growth, and Trade Openness in Saudi Arabia (1990-2017)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 579-598, July.
    9. António Afonso & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2009. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: a Granger Causality Panel Data Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/24, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. HAMDI, Helmi & SBIA, Rashid, 2012. "Modeling causality between Electricity consumption and Economic Growth in BIICS Countries," MPRA Paper 49909, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    11. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    12. Ali, Usman & Li, Yanxi & Wang, Jian-Jun & Yue, Xiaohang & Chang, Ai-Chih (Jasmine), 2021. "Dynamics of outward FDI and productivity spillovers in logistics services industry: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unit root; cointegration; causality; economic growth; export; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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