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Potential Diversification Benefits In The Presence Of Unknown Structural Breaks: An Australian Case Study

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  • Patrick J. Wilson
  • Richard Gerlach
  • Ralf Zurbruegg

Abstract

It is reasonable to suggest that a portfolio manager with direct property diversified by sector or region is more interested in strategic than in tactical asset allocation. However, even with strategic allocations of property the portfolio manager needs a regular monitoring of the inter‐relationships amongst assets comprising the portfolio to ensure that unexpected events do not ‘permanently’ alter such relationships. One procedure for ascertaining whether assets are inter‐related over the long run (and therefore offer few diversification benefits) is through cointegration analysis. A difficulty with conventional cointegration analysis, however, is that it is unable to accommodate changes in equilibrium relationships that might occur due to unexpected structural changes. In this paper we apply the Gregory and Hansen cointegration procedure to consider how unexpected structural changes might affect the potential long run diversification benefits of assets held in an Australian property portfolio.

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  • Patrick J. Wilson & Richard Gerlach & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2003. "Potential Diversification Benefits In The Presence Of Unknown Structural Breaks: An Australian Case Study," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 442-453, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:442-453
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinem Derindere Koseoglu & Ali Ozgür Karagülle, 2013. "Portfolio Diversification Benefits In Shipping Industry: A Cointegration Approach," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(2), pages 017-128, December.
    2. Marashdeh, Hazem & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Structural Changes in the Middle East Stock Markets: The case of Israel and Arab Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-22, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1687-1693, May.

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