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Long‐term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia

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  • Takao KOMINE
  • Shigesaburo KABE

Abstract

The demographic structure of Asia is expected to change rapidly from around 2020 up to around 2050. Following Japan, which is already at an advanced stage of aging and birthrate decline, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore will also witness a further decline in their birthrates and an aging of their populations. Next in line will be the remaining countries of the Association of South‐East Asian Nations as well as India. Such changes, accompanied by a decline in the labor force, will not only adversely affect economic growth, but also have a major impact on voting structures, savings rates, and social security systems. Moreover, the process of demographic aging in Asia will be faster than in Japan, and its extent will be substantial, both of which exacerbates the negative effects. On positive side, these trends will give rise to the emergence of new markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Takao KOMINE & Shigesaburo KABE, 2009. "Long‐term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 19-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:19-38
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01103.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samuel Preston, 1984. "Children and the elderly: Divergent paths for America’s dependents," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(4), pages 435-457, November.
    2. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Naohiro OGAWA, 2009. "Comment on “Long‐term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 39-42, June.
    4. Terrie Walmsley & Angel Aguiar & Syud Amer Ahmed, 2017. "Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South-East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 116-139, January.
    5. Fong Joelle H., 2017. "Extending Demographic Windows of Opportunity: Evidence from Asia," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Marcus Noland, 2015. "Comment on “Public Pension Programs in Southeast Asia: An Assessment”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 246-247, July.
    7. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
    8. Ralph Paprzycki & Keiko Ito, 2010. "Investment, Production and Trade Networks as Drivers of East Asian Integration," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-117, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Yoshihide SOEYA, 2009. "US and East Asian Security under the Obama Presidency: A Japanese Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 292-307, December.

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