IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2008-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Hori
  • Yu Ching Wong

Abstract

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The results of our model-based analyses indicate that the equilibrium exchange rate under the unified market could be at around K 400-500 per U.S. dollar, and using the equilibrium exchange rate (instead of the official exchange rate) as the accounting rate increases trade openness to more than 20 percent from less than 1 percent measured by official statistics. The total efficiency loss caused by the current multiple exchange rate regime is estimated at about 14-17 percent of GDP in 2006/07.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2008. "Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 2008/199, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22272
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    2. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
    3. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    4. Huizinga, H.P., 1996. "The Taxation Implicit in Two-Tiered Exchange Rate Systems," Discussion Paper 1996-100, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Myanmar's two decades of partial transition to a market economy: a negative legacy for the new government," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 357-370, September.
    2. World Bank, 2015. "Realigning the Union Budget to Myanmar’s Development Priorities," World Bank Publications - Reports 24068, The World Bank Group.
    3. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Restructuring the state budget system for disinflation and exchange rate unification in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 320, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 388, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    5. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(1), pages 110-126, May.
    6. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Trade policies and trade mis-reporting in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 326, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2001. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Import Demand Function: Evidence from Sri Lanka," International Trade 0012002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2002.
    2. Xu, Xinpeng, 2002. "The dynamic-optimizing approach to import demand: a structural model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 265-270, January.
    3. J.M. Ananda Jayawickrama, 2009. "Modelling Trade Sector and Trade Shocks in a Small Open Economy," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(1), pages 81-103, January.
    4. Rashid, Abdul & Razzaq, Tayyaba, 2010. "Estimating Import-Demand Function in ARDL Framework: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 26079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Juan Carlos Moreno‐Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance‐of‐Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 346-365, May.
    7. Haji Alias, Mohammad & Tang, Tuck & Othman, Jamal, 2001. "Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in five ASEAN Countries: An Empirical Study," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 35, pages 37-60.
    8. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    9. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2002. "Aggregate Import Demand Behavior For Indonesia: Evidence From The Bounds Testing Approach," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 10(2), pages 179-199, December.
    10. Kamps, Annette & Beck, Roland, 2009. "Petrodollars and imports of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 1012, European Central Bank.
    11. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    12. Hernando Rendón Obando & Andrés Ramírez Hassan, 2005. "Condición Marshall-Lerner: una aproximación al caso colombiano, 1980-2001," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, April.
    13. Montobbio, Fabio & Rampa, Francesco, 2005. "The impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 527-547, April.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Robert Mudida, 2015. "Testing the Marshall–Lerner Condition in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 253-268, June.
    15. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(01), pages 1-39, May.
    16. Sanjesh Kumar, 2009. "Estimating Export Equations for Developing Countries," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 17-28, March.
    17. M. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2010. "Estimating an Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 307-319, May.
    18. Mr. Andreas Billmeier & Ms. Dalia S Hakura, 2008. "Trade Elasticities in the Middle East and Central Asia: What is the Role of Oil?," IMF Working Papers 2008/216, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2013. "Costs of Myanmar's multiple exchange-rate regime," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 209-233, March.
    20. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 655-687.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; exchange rate;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.