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Long‐term consequences of short‐term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

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  • Valerie A. Mueller
  • Daniel E. Osgood

Abstract

We find that large short‐term precipitation shocks damage the long‐term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit‐constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long‐term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long‐term losses.

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  • Valerie A. Mueller & Daniel E. Osgood, 2009. "Long‐term consequences of short‐term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 573-586, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:40:y:2009:i:5:p:573-586
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00399.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hertweck, Matthias & Brey, Bjoern, 2017. "The Persistent Effects of Monsoon Rainfall Shocks in India: A Nonlinear VAR Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168256, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Fitz, Dylan & League, Riley, 2020. "The impact of early-life shocks on adult welfare in Brazil: Questions of measurement and timing," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    5. Bolivar, Osmar, 2023. "Evolución de la pobreza en las comunidades de Bolivia entre 2012 y 2022: Un enfoque de machine learning y teledetección [Evolution of poverty in Bolivian communities between 2012 and 2022: A machin," MPRA Paper 118932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Meza-Pale, Pablo & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2015. "The Effect of Rainfall Variation on Agricultural Households: Evidence from Mexico," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212457, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Jacob Ricker-Gilbert, 2014. "Wage and employment effects of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 337-353, May.
    8. Baez, Javier E. & de la Fuente, Alejandro & Santos, Indhira, 2010. "Do Natural Disasters Affect Human Capital? An Assessment Based on Existing Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 5164, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Fernando Antonio Ignacio González & Maria Emma Santos & Silvia London, 2021. "Persistent effects of natural disasters on human development: quasi-experimental evidence for Argentina," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 10432-10454, July.
    10. Javier E. Baez & Dorothy Kronick & Andrew D. Mason, 2013. "Rural Households in a Changing Climate," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 267-289, August.
    11. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    12. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty and Natural Disasters: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 7(2).

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