IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/afrdev/v26y2014i2p274-285.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?

Author

Listed:
  • Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi

Abstract

This study examined the causal relationships among GDP, export, imports and remittances. The study, among others, investigated the validity of export‐led and remittances‐led growth hypotheses. Specifically, the study investigated the causal relationship between remittances and GDP, remittances and export and remittances and imports. Employing a VECM Granger Causality for data spanning between 1980 and 2012, imports and remittances significantly Granger‐caused GDP in the short run. Also, there were reverse causalities running from GDP to export and imports. This implies that export‐led growth hypothesis holds in Nigeria. Furthermore, there was a unidirectional causation running from remittances to GDP, implying that remittances matter for economic growth. But since the effect was more from the demand side, it could lead to inflationary pressure. The policy recommendation is that the authorities should intensify efforts on the export base of the economy. The monetary authorities should implement necessary policy to cool the pressure arising from conspicuous spending of remittances.

Suggested Citation

  • Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi, 2014. "Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 274-285, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:274-285
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12081
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8268.12081?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adams, Richard H, Jr, 1991. "The Economic Uses and Impact of International Remittances in Rural Egypt," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 695-722, July.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    4. Taylor, J. Edward, 1992. "Remittances and inequality reconsidered: Direct, indirect, and intertemporal effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 187-208, April.
    5. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2011. "Growth by Destination (Where You Export Matters): Trade with China and Growth in African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 23(2), pages 202-218.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    7. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 383-415.
    8. repec:idb:brikps:8527 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2009. "Trade, aid, remittances and migration," KOF Working papers 09-229, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Abdoul' Ganiou Mijiyawa, 2013. "Africa's Recent Economic Growth: What Are the Contributing Factors?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(3), pages 289-302, September.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    13. John Anyanwu & Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor, 2010. "Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 22(1), pages 51-91.
    14. Awudu Abdulai & Philippe Jacquet, 2002. "Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Côte d’Ivoire," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17.
    15. Edward F. Buffie, 1992. "On the Condition for Export-Led Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 211-225, February.
    16. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2007. "Workers’ Remittances, Economic Growth and Poverty in Developing Asia and the Pacific Countries," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/07/01, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    17. Arusha Cooray, 2012. "The Impact of Migrant Remittances on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 985-998, November.
    18. Hamilton, Nora & Thompson, Carol, 1994. "Export promotion in a regional context: Central America and Southern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1379-1392, September.
    19. Lal, Deepak & Rajapatirana, Sarath, 1987. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 2(2), pages 189-217, July.
    20. Ademola Oyejide, 2007. "Relaxing Export Supply Capacity Constraints and Promoting Export Expansion and Diversification in Africa: The Role of Special Export Development Strategies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 19(1), pages 96-122.
    21. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Williams, 2016. "Remittances and Financial Development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 357-367, September.
    2. Joseph Siani, 2020. "International remittances, poverty and growth into WAEMU countries: evidence from panel cointegration approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1446-1456.
    3. Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Favour Chidinma Onuoha & Philip C. Omoke, 2022. "Tripartite relationship between FDI, trade openness and economic growth amidst global economic crisis in Nigeria: application of combined cointegration and augmented ARDL analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Joseph Siani, 2022. "The impact of remittances on human development in developing countries: an empirical evidence from cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel data with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2135-2149.
    5. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/063, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    6. T. V. Ojapinwa & N. I. Nwokoma, 2018. "Workers’ Remittances and the Dutch‐Disease Argument: Investigating the Relationship in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 316-324, September.
    7. Ofori, Isaac K. & Gbolonyo, Emmanuel & Dossou, Marcel A. T. & Nkrumah, Richard K., 2022. "Remittances and Income Inequality in Africa: Financial Development Thresholds for Economic Policy," MPRA Paper 113015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cynthia TABET & Michel ROCCA & Bachir EL MURR, 2022. "Transferts de fonds et effet boomerang : le cas du Liban (1990-2016)," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 133-148.
    9. Ebele Stella Nwokoye & Clement Izuchukwu Igbanugo & Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi, 2020. "International migrant remittances and labour force participation in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 125-137, June.
    10. Chinedu Obi & Fabio Bartolini & Marijke D’Haese, 2020. "International migration, remittance and food security during food crises: the case study of Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 207-220, February.
    11. Njangang, Henri & Nembot Ndeffo, Luc & Noubissi Domguia, Edmond & Fosto Koyeu, Prevost, 2018. "The long-run and short-run effects of foreign direct investment, foreign aid and remittances on economic growth in African countries," MPRA Paper 89747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/063, African Governance and Development Institute..
    13. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek & Mabrouki, Mohamed, 2022. "The Impact of Digitalization and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Richest Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 113816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shakirudeen Taiwo & Josine Uwilingiye, 2023. "New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 181-197, June.
    15. K. Bello Ajide & Ibrahim Dolapo Raheem, 2016. "The Institutional Quality Impact on Remittances in the ECOWAS Sub†Region," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 462-481, December.
    16. Udi Joshua & Oladimeji M. Salami & Andrew A. Alola, 2020. "Toward the path of Economic Expansion in Nigeria: The Role of Trade Globalization," Working Papers 20/009, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    17. Njangang, Henri, 2018. "Does the size of the informal economy impede the impact of remittances on economic growth? Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," MPRA Paper 90187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Lukman Ayinde Olorogun, 2022. "Revisiting the Nexus of FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Rwanda: a Johansen-ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 2695-2717, December.
    19. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers 20/063, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    20. Abdullah Bin Zafar, 2024. "Impact of Selected Factors on International Trade of Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 35(1), pages 30-47.
    21. Kristina Matuzeviciute & Mindaugas Butkus, 2016. "Remittances, Development Level, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-20, December.
    22. Lukman A. Olorogun, 2024. "Modelling Financial Development in the Private Sector, FDI, and Sustainable Economic Growth in sub-Saharan Africa: ARDL Bound Test-FMOLS, DOLS Robust Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8416-8434, June.
    23. Ali, Amjad & Khokhar, Bilal & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad, 2023. "Financial Dimensions of Inflationary Pressure in Developing Countries: An In-depth Analysis of Policy Mix," MPRA Paper 119364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle & Tolulope Oyakhilome Williams & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Serifat Olukorede Onayemi, 2020. "The Mediating Role Of Institutions In The Remittance–Growth Relationship: Evidence From Nigeria," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 7-30, October –.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Rehman & Nurul Mahdzan, 2014. "Linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1511-1535, May.
    3. S. Nyasha & N.M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of remittances on economic growth: empirical evidence from South Africa," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 254-272.
    4. S. Nyasha & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers AESRI-2021-21, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    5. Nyasha, Sheilla & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Remittances and economic growth : Empirical evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25744, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    6. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    7. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    8. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    9. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    10. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    11. Chandan Sapkota, 2013. "Remittances in Nepal: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(10), pages 1316-1331, October.
    12. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    13. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    14. Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi & Farrukh Bashir & Saman Maqsood, 2013. "Is Fiscal Policy Effective In Generating Higher Real Output? A Case Of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(2), pages 47-58, December.
    15. Ummya Salma & Md. Fazlul Huq Khan & Md. Masum Billah, 2023. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh," Papers 2312.04695, arXiv.org.
    16. Waithe, Kimberly & Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian, 2010. "Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico," MPRA Paper 95557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Stephan Klasen, 2018. "Great Expectations? Remittances and Asset Accumulation in Pakistan," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 507-532, April.
    18. Nyasha S. & Odhiambo N. M., 2016. "The Impact of Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Development on Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence From the United Kingdom," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 389-410, June.
    19. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2004. "A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-598, June.
    20. Azhar Khan, Muhammad & Zahir Khan, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid & Naz, Lubna, 2014. "Global estimates of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-344.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:274-285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.