IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v95y2024ipbs1057521924003399.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bilateral conflicts and corporate investment

Author

Listed:
  • Xiong, Mengxu
  • Lu, Jiajia
  • Kong, Dongmin

Abstract

Based on the real time conflict data and the bilateral trade records, we construct an index that captures the risks of bilateral tensions perceived by firms. Using the novel index, we document that bilateral conflicts exert a significantly negative influence on corporate investment, which is conceivably due to reduced prospective investment earnings, tougher financing condition, and increased cash holdings. The findings remain valid under various robustness examinations and endogeneity tests, and the adverse effect is more pronounced for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), firms subject to stringent financial constraint, firms with higher investment irreversibility, firms located in regions of higher level of marketization, firms in Eastern regions, and firms with lower level of ownership concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiong, Mengxu & Lu, Jiajia & Kong, Dongmin, 2024. "Bilateral conflicts and corporate investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924003399
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924003399
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103407?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Liu, Yu & Sah, Nilesh & Ullah, Barkat & Wei, Zuobao, 2020. "Financing patterns in transition economies: Privatized former SOEs versus ab initio private firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Firms' cash reserve, financial constraint, and geopolitical risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Iacoella, Francesco & Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2021. "Chinese official finance and political participation in Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Consoli, Sergio & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo & Tosetti, Elisa, 2021. "Emotions in macroeconomic news and their impact on the European bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Kim, Olivia S., 2019. "Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2141-2178, October.
    7. Her-Jiun Sheu & Shiou-Ying Lee, 2012. "Excess cash holdings and investment: the moderating roles of financial constraints and managerial entrenchment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52, pages 287-310, October.
    8. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
    9. Lou, Xu & Qian, Aimin & Zhang, Chenyu, 2021. "Do CEO's political promotion incentives influence the value of cash holdings: Evidence from state-owned enterprises in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Wang, Kai-Hua & Xiong, De-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Shao, Xue-Feng & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk uncertainty strengthen or depress cash holdings of oil enterprises? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    12. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian, 2024. "Individual investors’ dividend tax reform and investment efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1102-1119.
    13. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    14. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Liu, Lihua, 2023. "Mandatory dividend policy and investment efficiency within state-owned business groups," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Phan, Hieu V. & Nguyen, Nam H. & Nguyen, Hien T. & Hegde, Shantaram, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 71-82.
    17. Fuchs, Andreas & Klann, Nils-Hendrik, 2013. "Paying a visit: The Dalai Lama effect on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 164-177.
    18. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    19. Che, Yi & Du, Julan & Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang, 2015. "Once an enemy, forever an enemy? The long-run impact of the Japanese invasion of China from 1937 to 1945 on trade and investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 182-198.
    20. Ma, Feng & Lu, Fei & Tao, Ying, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    22. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    23. Chen, Guo & Liu, Yishuang & Gao, Qizheng & Zhang, Jianqing, 2023. "Does regional services development enhance manufacturing firm productivity? A manufacturing servitization perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 451-466.
    24. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    25. Shen, Lihua & Hong, Yanran, 2023. "Can geopolitical risks excite Germany economic policy uncertainty: Rethinking in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Lenos Trigeorgis & Jeffrey J. Reuer, 2017. "Real options theory in strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 42-63, January.
    27. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    28. Li, Yuhua & Jian, Ze & Tian, Wei & Zhao, Laixun, 2021. "How political conflicts distort bilateral trade: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 233-249.
    29. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    30. Han, Seungjin & Qiu, Jiaping, 2007. "Corporate precautionary cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-57, March.
    31. Tian, Jing & Li, Haiwei & You, Pin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank loan, and corporate innovation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    32. Dudley, Evan & Zhang, Ning, 2016. "Trust and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-387.
    33. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    34. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    35. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    36. García Lara, Juan Manuel & García Osma, Beatriz & Penalva, Fernando, 2016. "Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 221-238.
    37. Sergio G Lazzarini & Luiz F Mesquita & Felipe Monteiro & Aldo Musacchio, 2021. "Leviathan as an inventor: An extended agency model of state-owned versus private firm invention in emerging and developed economies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(4), pages 560-594, June.
    38. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    39. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    40. Liang Shao & Chuck C Y Kwok & Ran Zhang, 2013. "National culture and corporate investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 44(7), pages 745-763, September.
    41. Du, Yingxin & Ju, Jiandong & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Yao, Xi, 2017. "Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990–2013," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 211-225.
    42. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Cui, Di & Ding, Mingfa & Han, Yikai & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Foreign shareholders, relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Liu, Yuanyuan & Li, Jing & Liu, Guanchun & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm’s cash holding in China: The key role of asset reversibility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    5. Vo, Hong & Trinh, Quoc-Dat & Le, Minh & Nguyen, Thuy-Ngan, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect investment sensitivity to peer stock prices?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 685-699.
    6. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "Firm investment steering through state-level policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    7. Azimli, Asil, 2022. "The impact of policy, political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    8. Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    9. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Shen, Xieyang & Yang, Sijie & Chen, Yulin & Zeng, Jianyu, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty influence managers' learning from peers' stock prices? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    13. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Chang, Chong-Chuo & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Mon, Khin Thiri, 2024. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the firm's working capital requirements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Ashton De Silva & Huu Nhan Duong & My Nguyen & Yen Ngoc Nguyen, 2023. "Bank risk in uncertain times: Do credit rationing and revenue diversification matter?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1240-1273, July.
    19. Huang, Jin & Jin, Yong & Duan, Yang & She, Yanling, 2023. "Do Chinese firms speculate during high economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from wealth management products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924003399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.