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Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market

Author

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  • Benaković Dubravka

    (Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Croatia, Katančićeva 5, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Posedel Petra

    (Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Zagreb, Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Factor models observe the sensitivity of an asset return as a function of one or more factors. This paper analyzes returns on fourteen stocks of the Croatian capital market in the period from January 2004 to October 2009 using inflation, industrial production, interest rates, market index and oil prices as factors. Both the direction and strength of the relation between the change in factors and returns are investigated. The analyses included fourteen stocks and their sensitivities to factors were estimated. The results show that the market index has the largest statistical significance for all stocks and a positive relation to returns. Interest rates, oil prices and industrial production also marked a positive relation to returns, while inflation had a negative influence. Furthermore, cross-sectional regression with the estimated sensitivities used as independent variables and returns in each month as dependent variables is performed. This analysis resulted in time series of risk premiums for each factor. The most important factor affecting stock prices proved to be the market index, which had a positive risk premium. A statistically significant factor in 2004 and 2008 was also inflation, marking a negative risk premium in 2004 and a positive one in 2008. The remaining three factors have not shown as significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Benaković Dubravka & Posedel Petra, 2010. "Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 1(1-2), pages 39-46, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bit:bsrysr:v:1:y:1010:i:1-2:p:39-46
    DOI: 10.2478/v10305-012-0023-z
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    1. Benaković Dubravka & Posedel Petra, 2010. "Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 1(1-2), pages 39-46, January.
    2. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
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    1. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.
    2. Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "Effects of Macroeconomic Volatility on Stock Prices in Kenya: A Cointegration Evidence from the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Benaković Dubravka & Posedel Petra, 2010. "Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 1(1-2), pages 39-46, January.
    4. Kvainickas Tomas Sovijus & Stankevičienė Jelena, 2019. "Regional Limitations of Stock Indices Prediction Models Based on Macroeconomic Variables," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 5-20, December.
    5. Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
    6. Naveen R.S. & N. Sivakumar, 2016. "Impact of Macro-Economic Factors on Sectoral Indices – Evidence from Indian Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 5(3), pages 174-182, August.
    7. Dolinar Denis & Zoričić Davor & Golubić Zrinka Lovretin, 2019. "Application of semi-deviation as a proxy for the expected return estimation in the Croatian equity market," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 9-20, May.
    8. Katarzyna Kubiszewska & Marcin Potrykus, 2020. "Balkan Stock Exchanges – Consideration of the Length of the Estimation Window in Similar Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1047-1067.
    9. Maitra, Debasish & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the logistics industry: Dynamic connectedness with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Sirucek, Martin, 2013. "Vliv peněžní nabídky na akciové bubliny v Japonsku [The impact of money supply on japanesee stock bubbles]," MPRA Paper 62817, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    11. Tomasz Schabek & Bojana Olgiæ Draženoviæ & Davor Mance, 2019. "Reaction of Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index to macroeconomic announcements within a high frequency time interval," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 741-758.
    12. Endang Mahpudin, 2020. "The Effect of Macroeconomics on Stock Price Index in the Republic of China," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 228-236.
    13. Mihovil An?elinovi? & Livija Valenti? & Ana Pavkovi?, 2020. "Equity Fund Performance and Sector Diversification," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 25-43, June.
    14. Martin Širůček, 2013. "Impact of money supply on stock bubbles," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2835-2842.
    15. Zaimovic Azra & Arnaut-Berilo Almira & Mustafic Arnela, 2017. "Portfolio Diversification in the South-East European Equity Markets," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 126-135, April.
    16. Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "The Determinants of Stock Returns in the Emerging Market of Kenya: An Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 8-21, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor models; risk premium; stock returns; estimated sensitivities; regression analysis; Factor models; risk premium; stock returns; estimated sensitivities; regression analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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