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Optimal Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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  • Nielsen M.O.

Abstract

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotics apply. With i.i.d. Gaussian errors the asymptotic Gaussian power envelope of all invariant (invariant and unbiased) tests is achieved by the one-sided (two-sided) test. The finite sample properties are illustrated by a Monte Carlo study. In an application to the dynamics among exchange rates for seven major currencies against the US dollar some evidence of the existence of a cointegrating relation is found.
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  • Nielsen M.O., 2004. "Optimal Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 331-345, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:22:y:2004:p:331-345
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis, 2012. "Estimation and Testing for Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers halshs-00793206, HAL.
    2. Morten Orregaard Nielsen, 2004. "Efficient inference in multivariate fractionally integrated time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 63-97, June.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "The Feldstein--Horioka puzzle in South Africa: A fractional cointegration approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 978-991, October.
    4. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2016. "On the risk comovements between the crude oil market and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 206-215.
    5. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    6. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2007. "Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 574-596, December.
    7. Aaron D. Smallwood & Stefan C. Norrbin, 2006. "Generalized long memory processes, failure of cointegration tests and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 409-417, May.
    8. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Cheng, Xu & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2012. "Cointegrating rank selection in models with time-varying variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 155-165.
    10. Bent Jesper Christensen & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," CREATES Research Papers 2013-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Mauro Costantini & Roy Cerqueti, 2007. "Non parametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis," ISAE Working Papers 78, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    12. Frank S. Nielsen, 2009. "Local Whittle estimation of multivariate fractionally integrated processes," CREATES Research Papers 2009-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Katarzyna Łasak & Carlos Velasco, 2015. "Fractional Cointegration Rank Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, April.
    14. Avarucci, Marco & Velasco, Carlos, 2009. "A Wald test for the cointegration rank in nonstationary fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 178-189, August.
    15. Demetrescu, Matei & Kusin, Vladimir & Salish, Nazarii, 2022. "Testing for no cointegration in vector autoregressions with estimated degree of fractional integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Frank S. Nielsen, 2011. "Local Whittle estimation of multi‐variate fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 317-335, May.
    17. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    18. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Carcel, Hector, 2020. "A fractional cointegration var analysis of exchange rate dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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