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Is There A Trade Convergence Between South East European And Central European Economies?

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  • Goran Nikolić
  • Ivan Nikolić

Abstract

Given the importance of trade performance to overall economic fundamentals, the question arises as to the extent that South East European Countries (SEEC) have successfully followed the successful transition path of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). To address this issue, we use similarity indicators to calculate possible convergence between the export structures of SEEC and CEEC from 2007–2008 to 2018–2019. We then compute the value of the similarity coefficients of SEEC and CEEC export structures and compare them with EU import structures, and intra-industry trade for both SEEC and CEEC. Next, we calculate the qualitative changes of both SEEC and CEEC merchandise trade through the tendency of technology-intensive products. The results of these two groups are compared to determine whether SEEC trade performance is converging to that of the CEEC. The results show structural improvements and an above-average increase in SEEC trade since 2007. However, given the simultaneous, moderate qualitative trade progress in the CEEC, the convergence between these two groups is insufficient to close the gap in the foreseeable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Goran Nikolić & Ivan Nikolić, 2021. "Is There A Trade Convergence Between South East European And Central European Economies?," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(231), pages 7-32, October –.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:66:y:2021:i:231:p:7-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcel Ševela, 2005. "Development of convergence in foreign trade of the new EU-members [Vývoj konvergence zahraničního obchodu nových členů EU]," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 195-204.
    2. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2008. "Similarity in trade structures, integration and catching‐up1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(2), pages 165-182, April.
    3. Nuno Crespo & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2007. "Integration of CEECs into EU Market: Structural Change and Convergence," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 611-632, September.
    4. Sebastian Leitner & Mario Holzner, 2008. "Economic Inequality in Central, East and Southeast Europe," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 155-188.
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    6. Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2009. "Export structure and export specialisation in Central and Eastern European countries," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/81, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Goran Nikolić, 2013. "Is There A Structural Improvement In The Merchandise Exports Of The Balkan Countries In The Period 2000-2012?," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(196), pages 99-132, January –.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mladen Stamenković, 2023. "Where Did All The Papers Go? A Bibliometric Overview Of Publications In Economics From Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 29-50, January –.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade structures; convergence; South East European Countries; Central European Countries; similarity indices; intra-industry trade.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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