IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beo/journl/v65y2020i226p103-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants Of Foreign Exchange Reserves In Serbia And North Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Mile Bošnjak
  • Vlatka Bilas
  • Gordana Kordić

Abstract

This paper employs a quan-tile regression approach to explore the determinants and properties of interna-tional foreign exchange reserves in Serbia and North Macedonia, at various foreign exchange levels. The observed period cov-ers quarterly data for 2005q1–2019q1. The results reveal quantile-dependent de-terminants of foreign exchange reserves and enable comparison between the two countries, showing co-movements between monetary policy and economic fluctua-tions. Following the estimates obtained in this research, the paper compares the role of foreign exchange reserves in Serbia and North Macedonia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mile Bošnjak & Vlatka Bilas & Gordana Kordić, 2020. "Determinants Of Foreign Exchange Reserves In Serbia And North Macedonia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(226), pages 103-120, July – Se.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:65:y:2020:i:226:p:103-120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/043.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    7. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    8. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
    9. Benecká, Soňa & Komarek, Lubos, 2018. "International reserves: Facing model uncertainty," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 523-531.
    10. Winston Moore & Adrian Glean, 2016. "Foreign exchange reserve adequacy and exogenous shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 490-501, February.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    12. Biljana Jovanovikj & Danica Unevska Andonova, 2017. "The Optimal Level of Foreign Reserves in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-05, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    13. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    15. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    16. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Jun I Kim & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2011. "Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2011/249, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    19. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Manuel & Daisy Mbazima-Lando & Erwin Naimhwaka, 2023. "Effects of Government Expenditure on Foreign Exchange Reserves: Evidence for Namibia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 172-183, January.
    2. Mile Bosnjak & Jurica Vukas & Ivan Sverko, 2021. "PREDICTING NPLs FOR CROATIA WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 30(2), pages 571-586, december.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2014. "Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals, financial stress and economic uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 170-189.
    2. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    3. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    5. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    6. Samba Michel Cyrille, 2015. "International Reserves Holdings in the CEMAC Area: Adequacy and Motives," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(4), pages 415-427, December.
    7. Cristian Camilo Porras-Alarcón, 2020. "Una aproximación a los determinantes de acumulación de reservas internacionales en economías emergentes," Borradores de Economia 1126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Sula, Ozan & Oguzoglu, Umut, 2021. "International reserves and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 16-28.
    9. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Relationship between International Reserves and FX Rate Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    10. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Jorge Guillén & Jussara Ribeiro, 2021. "An international reserves variation threshold to increase loan funding," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 247-265, May.
    11. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Does an Undervalued Currency Merit Economic Growth? – Evidence from Taiwan," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 37-57, March.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    13. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, Ph.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from South Asia," NRB Working Paper 32/2016, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    18. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    19. Luis Cabezas & José De Gregorio, 2018. "Accumulation of Reserves in Emerging and Developing Countries: Mercantilism vs. Insurance," Working Papers wp467, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    20. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Optimal reserves in financially closed economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international foreign ex-change reserves; quantile regression; for-eign exchange rate; GDP; monetary aggre-gates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:65:y:2020:i:226:p:103-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Goran Petrić (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efbeoyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.