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Measuring The Optimal Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index For Turkey

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  • Havvanur Feyza Erdem
  • Rahmi Yamak

Abstract

The aim of this study is to calculate the optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index for the Turkish economy. The data used in the study are quarterly and cover the period 2002-2014. In this study the index is formed based on the small structural macroeconomic model. The study uses three important econometric processes. First, the model is estimated separately using generalized method of moments (GMM), seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR), and ordinary least squares (OLS). Secondly, the Broyden–Fletcher– Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) algorithm is applied as an optimization algorithm. The BFGS algorithm calibrates the model using GMM, SUR, and OLS parameter estimations of the benchmark parameters. Next, the index variables are weighted under the estimated optimal coefficients and, finally, are aggregated to produce the optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index.

Suggested Citation

  • Havvanur Feyza Erdem & Rahmi Yamak, 2016. "Measuring The Optimal Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 7-22, July - Se.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:61:y:2016:i:210:p:7-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. David Cronin & Robert Kelly & Bernard Kennedy, 2011. "Money growth, uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 155-167, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Havvanur Feyza Erdem & George Tawadros, 2020. "Estimating An Optimal Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index For Australia," Working Papers 2020-02, DePauw University, School of Business and Leadership and Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    3. Isiks Aliya Zhkanova & Isiksal Huseyin & Jalali Hala, 2017. "The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Turkish Economy 2010–2016," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 69-81, December.
    4. Suleyman Kasal & Sebnem Tosunoglu, 2022. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Turkish Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 538-566.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic uncertainty; optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index; BFGS algorithm; GMM; SUR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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