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The end of the demographic dividend in Latin America: challenges for economic and social policies

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Berganza
  • Rodolfo Campos
  • Enrique Martínez Casillas
  • Javier Pérez

Abstract

Population ageing is a major global challenge. The Latin American economies have a younger population structure than other emerging and advanced economies, which has allowed them to enjoy the so-called demographic dividend (a favourable working age/non-working age population ratio). However, according to the latest demographic projections of the United Nations (UN), it is estimated that in 2020 the Latin American population pyramid will resemble that of the advanced economies in 1990 and that, by around 2050, both groups will have similar population profiles. This article documents the current demographic trends in Latin America and discusses the main related challenges, in particular, those arising from the adaptation of social welfare systems to population ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Berganza & Rodolfo Campos & Enrique Martínez Casillas & Javier Pérez, 2020. "The end of the demographic dividend in Latin America: challenges for economic and social policies," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2020:i:03:d:aa:n:04
    Note: Analytical Articles
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodolfo G. Campos, 2017. "International migration pressures in the long run," Working Papers 1734, Banco de España.
    2. Huenchuan, Sandra, 2013. "Envejecimiento, solidaridad y protección social en América Latina y el Caribe: La hora de avanzar hacia la igualdad," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2617 edited by Cepal, May.
    3. Mr. Antonio David & Samuel Pienknagura & Mr. Jorge Roldos, 2020. "Labor Market Dynamics, Informality and Regulations in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2020/019, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. International Economics and Euro Area Department, 2021. "Report on the Latin American economy. First half of 2021. Outlook, vulnerabilities and policy space," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic dividend; ageing; pension systems; dependency ratio; total factor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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