Effects of Financial Inclusion on Economic Growth: Evidence from MENA Countries

In recent years, financial inclusion has taken center stage in policy discussions regarding achieving higher growth rates and reducing poverty levels. The existing literature analyzing the relationship between financial inclusion and GDP growth mostly assumes a one-way relation from financial inclusion to GDP, often ignoring potential reverse causality. Furthermore, the literature commonly adopts a financial inclusion index, or focuses on specific indicators such as the number of bank branches, ATMs or the share of people having an account. Because financial inclusion encompasses multiple dimensions, it is important to analyze the causal linkages between different financial inclusion indicators and GDP. In this paper, we analyze the nature and the direction of the causality between GDP and a large number of financial inclusion indicators for MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries by adopting the recently developed nonlinear and nonparametric Kernel causality approach. Our analysis suggests that financial inclusion increases as the share of women having bank accounts increases. It also increases with the share of adults with primary education having an account and the share of adults having a mobile account. We also identify the relationship between main barriers to financial inclusion and GDP, and find that affordability and having insufficient funds are associated with GDP.