IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econth/y2023i2p123-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitar Zlatinov
  • Iskra Christova-Balkanska
  • Pobeda Loukanova
  • Emil Panushev
  • Viktor Yotzov
  • Grigor Sariisky
  • Sonya Georgieva
  • Yana Paliova
  • Tsvetomir Tsvetkov

Abstract

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2021 and early 2022. The main sectors of the economy (real, fiscal, foreign, and financial) are examined, and the labour market is analysed. We assess the current policies being implemented in Bulgaria, considering regional and global developments and trends. Based on specific conclusions, we make recommendations for mitigating high-risk price dynamics, preserving incomes and employment, and ensuring fiscal stability. Employing a structural macroeconomic model, a reasoned medium-run macroeconomic scenario is proposed, reflecting different assumptions about both the dynamics of the external economic environment and the expected economic policies. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation and projections for the development of the Bulgarian economy are based on key factors such as accelerating inflation, uncertainties surrounding the epidemic situation caused by COVID-19, geopolitical turbulences in the region, and the expected acceleration of investment activity through the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Zlatinov & Iskra Christova-Balkanska & Pobeda Loukanova & Emil Panushev & Viktor Yotzov & Grigor Sariisky & Sonya Georgieva & Yana Paliova & Tsvetomir Tsvetkov, 2023. "The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 123-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2023:i:2:p:123-162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://etj.iki.bas.bg/storage/app/uploads/public/647/e42/a61/647e42a61e1c2760809216.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Sierhej & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2007. "Interpreting EU Funds Data for Macroeconomic Analysis in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2007/077, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2008/223, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jaroslaw Pietras, 2009. "EU Funds Provided to the New Member States: Relevance for ODA and Achieving the Monterrey Consensus," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2009_1, UNECE.
    3. Marcin Piątkowski, 2010. "Polityka podatkowa w Europie Środowo - Wschodniej - konkurować czy harmonizować?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 51-66.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2010/130, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Dustin Smith & Mr. Albert Jaeger, 2012. "The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe: Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 2012/222, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Iana Paliova, 2024. "Fiscal Consolidation and Growth Effects of the EU Funding During 2021-2027 in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 90-111.
    7. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2014. "Absorbţia fondurilor structurale şi de coeziune în Romania: bilanţul perioadei 2007-2013 şi lecţii pentru exerciţiul financiar curent [The absorption of structural and cohesion funds in Romania: ba," MPRA Paper 56144, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Iana Paliova & Mr. Tonny Lybek, 2014. "Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!," IMF Working Papers 2014/021, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Philip Levitz & Grigore Pop-Eleches, 2010. "Monitoring, Money and Migrants: Countering Post-Accession Backsliding in Bulgaria and Romania," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(3), pages 461-479.
    10. Miss Catriona Purfield & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2010. "Adjustment Under a Currency Peg: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania During the Global Financial Crisis 2008-09," IMF Working Papers 2010/213, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe—How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 2007/236, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2023:i:2:p:123-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.