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Adjustment Under a Currency Peg: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania During the Global Financial Crisis 2008-09

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  • Miss Catriona Purfield
  • Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg

Abstract

The paper traces the Baltics’ adjustment strategy during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The abrupt end to the externally-financed domestic demand boom triggered a severe output collapse, bringing per capita income levels back to 2005/06 levels. In response to this shock, the Baltics undertook an internal devaluation that relied on unprecedented fiscal and nominal wage adjustment, steps to preserve financial sector stability as well as complementary efforts to facilitate voluntary private debt restructuring. One-and-half years on, the strategy is making good progress but not yet complete. Confidence in the exchange rate was maintained, the banking system was supported by its parent banks, external imbalances and inflation have largely disappeared, competitiveness is improving, and fiscal deficits are gradually being brought back towards pre-crisis levels. However, amid record levels of unemployment, further reforms are needed to foster a return to more balanced growth, fiscal sustainability, and a healthier banking system.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Catriona Purfield & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2010. "Adjustment Under a Currency Peg: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania During the Global Financial Crisis 2008-09," IMF Working Papers 2010/213, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Robert Sierhej & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2007. "Interpreting EU Funds Data for Macroeconomic Analysis in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2007/077, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ms. Valerie Herzberg, 2010. "Assessing the Risk of Private Sector Debt Overhang in the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/250, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Adalbert Knöbl & Mr. Richard D Haas, 2003. "IMF and the Baltics: A Decade of Cooperation," IMF Working Papers 2003/241, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
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