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The Impact of Recent Innovations in Monetary Policy on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt

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  • Ibrahim L. Awad

Abstract

The study set out to answer the following two questions: (i) How far can foreign economic shocks explain the behavior of domestic real GDP and domestic price level compared with domestic economic shocks? (ii) Has the reaction function of the central bank of Egypt (CBE) differed in the last few years? Using monthly data on the periods 1998-2002 and 2004-2009, the study estimated a structural VAR model in which the Egyptian economy is treated as a small open economy. The results of the study are as follows: (i) The state of foreign economy has significantly affected domestic inflation and real GDP gap in the last few years. (ii) A sudden depreciation of domestic currency no longer supports domestic economic growth and its impact on domestic price level has relaxed. (iii) The impact of monetary policy actions on domestic price has switched to be swift and significant in the last few years. (iv) The CBE does not regularly intervene in the FX market and no longer confines itself with a target for M2. (v) The CBE has been caring about price stability and real GDP growth, respectively. In addition, the CBE has managed monetary policy more independently in the last few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim L. Awad, 2011. "The Impact of Recent Innovations in Monetary Policy on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 186-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2011:i:4:p:186-209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 32-82, September.
    2. Kamar Bassem & Bakardzhieva Damyana, 2005. "Economic Trilemma and Exchange Rate Management in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    4. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    5. Marvin Goodfriend, 2008. "The Case for Price Stability with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(2), pages 247-254, Winter.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    9. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    10. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    11. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim AWAD, 2013. "Challenges For Adopting Inflation Targeting Regime In Egypt," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 11, pages 59-81, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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