From protective intelligence to threat assessment: Strategies critical to preventing targeted violence and the active shooter

Acts of targeted violence — including active shooter incidents — are typically over within 15 minutes, often before the first law enforcement personnel can respond to the scene. More than a third of active shooter incidents in the USA, for example, last less than five minutes. While this stark fact is often used, with unimpeachable validity, as the cornerstone of employee security awareness training and the need for each employee to make a quick decision on whether to run, hide or fight, it also underscores the importance of another critical priority: prevention. This paper focuses on several of the most effective strategies and tactics — increasingly used across the USA, but applicable all over the world — in preventing an act of targeted violence or active shooter event. It starts with a brief discussion of the common roadblocks to prevention within enterprises today as well as the warning signs that can reveal an individual’s path toward an act of violence. Next, it defines targeted violence and summarises patterns that research has helped uncover with respect to attackers’ backgrounds, motives and target selection. This paper also outlines the crucial role played by protective intelligence and threat assessment protocols and provides several case studies to illustrate key concepts in real-world applications. Finally, this discussion points to several emerging trends in the USA and Europe, among other regions — such as radicalisation within the workforce — that are likely to continue to mature in 2016 and the years ahead.