IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/arp/bmerar/2018p15-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictability between the Number of Foreign Direct Investment Contracts and Actually Utilized Foreign Direct Investment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chen Li

    (School of Tourism and Economic Management (International Trade Specialty 2015-3), Chengdu University, Chengdu, China)

Abstract

Actually utilized foreign direct investment (AUFDI) and the number of FDI contracts are two indicators that could be used to assess the performance of foreign investments in an area. This paper mainly aims to investigate if these two statistical variables could be used to predict each other in the long run as well as in the short run. Data were monthly time series and spanned 2002-2016. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests indicated two series were integrated of order one. Both the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests did not detect a cointegrating vector. Hence, the study constructed a first-differenced lagged vector-autoregression model, within which estimated short-term coefficients were statistically insignificant. Log AUFDI did not Granger cause log FDI contracts and vice versa. Therefore, changes in foreign investment contracts and changes in actually used foreign investment could not forecast each other either during a short term or a long term. This paper suggests that the market orientation in foreign investments is growing. For purposes of foreign investment statistics, while actually used foreign direct investment definitely measures the investment level, the contract number must be treated with care.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Li, 2018. "Predictability between the Number of Foreign Direct Investment Contracts and Actually Utilized Foreign Direct Investment in China," Business, Management and Economics Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(2), pages 15-19, 02-2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:bmerar:2018:p:15-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/pdf-files/bmer4(2)15-19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=8&month=02-2018&issue=2&volume=4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    4. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yin, Hong, 2010. "Intellectual property rights protection and the surge in FDI in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 217-224, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaolu Zou & K. W. Chau, 2019. "Long- and Short-Run Effects of Fuel Prices on Freight Transportation Volumes in Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-12, September.
    2. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    4. Gaolu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2020. "Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hwey-Yun Yau & Ken Hung & Hong-Kou Ou & Shine Hung, 2013. "Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 545-561, April.
    6. K. W. Chau & Gaolu Zou, 2018. "Energy Prices, Real Estate Sales and Industrial Output in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    8. Benjamin Auer & Frank Schuhmacher, 2013. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Investor sentiment, stock market valuation and merger activity," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(2), pages 245-245, June.
    9. Ruixiaoxiao Zhang & Geoffrey QP Shen & Meng Ni & Johnny Wong, 2020. "The relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong (1992–2015): Evidence from sectoral analysis and implications on future energy policy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(2), pages 215-236, March.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    12. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    13. João Leitão, 2004. "Demand Pull And Supply Push In Portuguese Cable Television," Econometrics 0409011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    15. Nafeesa Yunus, 2013. "Dynamic interactions among property types," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 135-159, March.
    16. Nafeesa Yunus & J. Hansz & Paul Kennedy, 2012. "Dynamic Interactions Between Private and Public Real Estate Markets: Some International Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1021-1040, November.
    17. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yau, Hwey-Yun, 2004. "Time series analysis for the interest rates relationships among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan money markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 171-188, February.
    18. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 236-248, March.
    19. Asai Manabu & Peiris Shelton & McAleer Michael & Allen David E., 2020. "Cointegrated Dynamics for a Generalized Long Memory Process: Application to Interest Rates," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Per-Ola Maneschiöld, 2008. "A Note on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Time Series Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 293-302.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arp:bmerar:2018:p:15-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Managing Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arpgweb.com/index.php?ic=journal&journal=8&info=aims .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.