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The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

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  • Irina Tarasenko

    (World Trade Organization, Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Tarasenko, 2021. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 7(3), pages 213-232, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:7:y:2021:i:3:p:213-232
    DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57933
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Akram Shavkatovich Hasanov Author_Email: & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Mahendran Shitan & Zainidin Karimovich Eshkuvatov, 2011. "Exchange Rate Risk And Trade Flows: A Gravity Equation Approach," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-312, Conference Master Resources.
    3. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Azim M Sadikov & Mr. Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/009, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hasanov Akram, 2011. "Exchange rate risk and trade flows: the case of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 11/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahnaz Muhammad Ali & Muhammad Muzammil & Ayesha Umar, 2022. "The Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Growth of the Selected Developed Economies," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 51-57.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate volatility gravity model instrumental variable exports imports;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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