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Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade

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  • Bas Straathof
  • Paolo Calio

Abstract

Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable. We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is small for industrialized countries, especially since the late 1980s. An explanation for this is Wei’s (1999) “hedging hypothesis”, which states that the availability of currency derivatives has changed the relation between exchange rate volatility and trade. Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable. We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Bas Straathof & Paolo Calio, 2012. "Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade," CPB Discussion Paper 203, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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