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The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index

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Listed:
  • Simonsen, L.
  • Clarke, M.J.
  • Williamson, G.D.
  • Stroup, D.F.
  • Arden, N.H.
  • Schonberger, L.B.

Abstract

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of recent influenza epidemics on mortality in the United States and to develop an index for comparing the severity of individual epidemics. Methods. A cyclical regression model was applied to weekly national vital statistics from 1972 through 1992 to estimate excesses in pneumonia and influenza mortality and all-cause mortality for each influenza season. Each season was categorized on the basis of increments of 2000 pneumonia and influenza excess deaths, and each of these severity categories was correlated with a range of all-cause excess mortality. Results. Each of the 20 influenza seasons studied was associated with an average of 56000 pneumonia and influenza excess deaths (range, 0-11 800) and 21 300 all-cause excess deaths (range, 0-47 200). Most influenza A (H3N2) seasons fell into severity categories 4 to 6 (23 000-45 000 all-cause excess deaths), whereas most A (H1N1) and B seasons were ranked in categories 1 to 3 (0-23 000 such deaths). Conclusions. From 1972 through 1992, influenza epidemics accounted for a total of 426 000 deaths in the United States, many times more than those associated with recent pandemics. The influenza epidemic severity index was useful for categorizing severity and provided improved seasonal estimates of the total number of influenza- related deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonsen, L. & Clarke, M.J. & Williamson, G.D. & Stroup, D.F. & Arden, N.H. & Schonberger, L.B., 1997. "The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(12), pages 1944-1950.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1997:87:12:1944-1950_7
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics

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    1. Rebuli, Nicolas P. & Bean, N.G. & Ross, J.V., 2018. "Estimating the basic reproductive number during the early stages of an emerging epidemic," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 26-36.
    2. Ka Chun Chong & William Goggins & Benny Chung Ying Zee & Maggie Haitian Wang, 2015. "Identifying Meteorological Drivers for the Seasonal Variations of Influenza Infections in a Subtropical City — Hong Kong," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Xiaoli Wang & Shuangsheng Wu & C Raina MacIntyre & Hongbin Zhang & Weixian Shi & Xiaomin Peng & Wei Duan & Peng Yang & Yi Zhang & Quanyi Wang, 2015. "Using an Adjusted Serfling Regression Model to Improve the Early Warning at the Arrival of Peak Timing of Influenza in Beijing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Enrique Acosta & Stacey A. Hallman & Lisa Y. Dillon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau & D. Ann Herring & Kris Inwood & David J. D. Earn & Joaquin Madrenas & Matthew S. Miller & Alain Gagnon, 2019. "Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1723-1746, October.
    6. Maria Mavrouli & Spyridon Mavroulis & Efthymios Lekkas & Athanassios Tsakris, 2021. "Respiratory Infections Following Earthquake-Induced Tsunamis: Transmission Risk Factors and Lessons Learned for Disaster Risk Management," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-18, May.
    7. David Wilson & Rosemary Lester & Anne Taylor & Tiffany Gill & Eleonora Grande & John Litt & Ann Kempe & Margaret Campbell & Nan Miller & Gay Rixon & Jo Schell & Brenda White & Sandra Klason, 2002. "Prevalence of influenza immunisation in Australia and suggestions for future targeting of campaigns," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 47(2), pages 91-99, March.
    8. Alex Huynh & Aaron Bruhn & Bridget Browne, 2013. "A Review of Catastrophic Risks for Life Insurers," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 233-266, September.
    9. Julia B Wenger & Elena N Naumova, 2010. "Seasonal Synchronization of Influenza in the United States Older Adult Population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, April.

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