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Grey Forecast Models of Manpower Demand for Pilots in Taiwan

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  • KUNG-DON YE

    (National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan)

  • HUA-AN LU

    (National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan)

  • WEI-HAO CHAO

    (National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan)

Abstract

Air men are one of the most important resources in the air transport industry. They are qualified and professional manpower certificated by the civil aviation authority in every country. These kinds of certificated manpower include pilots for civil air transport and general aviation, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, maintenance engineers, and ground machinists in Taiwan. In particular, the manpower requirement for pilots represents the scale of air transport market in one country and also concerns the certification affairs operated by the civil aviation authority. An appropriate manpower demand forecast model can assist the authority to realize the future development of the whole aviation industry. The purpose of this study is to analyze the demand trends of air men in Taiwan and proposes forecast models to predict the future manpower requirement of pilots in civil air transport. Based on limited samples published in the official reports, this study applied the grey theory to construct GM(1,1) models for the prediction of all pilots, pilots in international airlines, and pilots in regional airlines. These models were evaluated as of good forecasting abilities. More forecast results and discussions are reported in this paper

Suggested Citation

  • Kung-Don Ye & Hua-An Lu & Wei-Hao Chao, 2016. "Grey Forecast Models of Manpower Demand for Pilots in Taiwan," International Journal of Applied and Physical Sciences, Dr K.Vivehananthan, vol. 2(3), pages 85-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:apa:ijapss:2016:p:85-93
    DOI: 10.20469/ijaps.2.50005-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
    2. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-590, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chih-Ming Chien & June-Hao Hou, 2018. "An approach to open source model on the collaborative construction in human civilization," Journal of Advances in Technology and Engineering Research, A/Professor Akbar A. Khatibi, vol. 4(1), pages 17-26.

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