IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v9y2024i1p61-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Geopolitical Risks and Political Stability Drive Foreign Direct Investments? New Evidence from Dynamic Panel CS-ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alper Yılmaz

Abstract

In this research, we aim to highlight the impact of geopolitical risks and political stability on investment flows directed towards 10 high-risky countries in the relevant database of Caldara and Icaivello (2018) for the period from 2000 to 2022 with yearly data. On that note, we employed the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test to check long run relationship. Then, we estimate co-integration parameters (coefficients) employing the CS-ARDL method to avoid estimation problems that arise from cross-section dependency and slope homogeneity. The results reveal that geopolitical risks have a negative effect on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for both the short and long term. The findings also prompt us to conclude that political stability in the host country has a significant impact on inward FDI in the long run. Cross-section dependency and delta tests indicate that geopolitical risk generates heterogeneous effects on host countries. In the last section, robustness checks with alternative estimators and Granger non-causality validate the main results at a conventional confidence level. To this end, policymakers may consider strengthening international institutions and organizations, giving importance to peaceful initiatives, multilateral agreements (commercial or economic), and diplomatic negotiations, as significant policy tools to increase investment inflows by enhancing stability, transparency, and predictability in governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alper Yılmaz, 2024. "Do Geopolitical Risks and Political Stability Drive Foreign Direct Investments? New Evidence from Dynamic Panel CS-ARDL Model," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:9:y:2024:i:1:p:61-87
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1405599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3602557
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30784/epfad.1405599?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Waqar Ameer & Kazi Sohag & Helian Xu & Musaad Mansoor Halwan, 2020. "The Impact of OFDI and Institutional Quality on Domestic Capital Formation at the Disaggregated Level: Evidence for Developed and Emerging Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    4. Miaozhi Yu & Na Wang, 2023. "The Influence of Geopolitical Risk on International Direct Investment and Its Countermeasures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Kappler, Marcus, 2006. "Panel Tests for Unit Roots in Hours Worked," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-022, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Rajah Rasiah & Xiao-Shan Yap, 2019. "How much of Raymond Vernon's product cycle thesis is still relevant today: evidence from the integrated circuits industry," International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 56-77.
    7. Steven Samford & Priscila Ortega G�mez, 2014. "Subnational politics and foreign direct investment in Mexico," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 467-496, April.
    8. Jennifer M. Oetzel & Chang Hoon Oh, 2014. "Learning to Carry the Cat by the Tail: Firm Experience, Disasters, and Multinational Subsidiary Entry and Expansion," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 732-756, June.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    10. Dunning, John H, 1979. "Explaining Changing Patterns of International Production: In Defence of the Eclectic Theory," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 269-295, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liddle, Brantley & Huntington, Hillard, 2020. "‘On the Road Again’: A 118 country panel analysis of gasoline and diesel demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 151-167.
    2. Zallé, Oumarou, 2022. "Natural Resource Dependence, Corruption, and Tax Revenue Mobilization," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 316-336.
    3. Brantley Liddle & Fakhri Hasanov, 2022. "Industry electricity price and output elasticities for high-income and middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1293-1319, March.
    4. Liddle, Brantley & Huntington, Hillard, 2021. "How prices, income, and weather shape household electricity demand in high-income and middle-income countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Mohamed Boly & Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Public debt versus Environmental debt: What are the relevant Tradeoffs?," Post-Print hal-02315163, HAL.
    6. Bulent Diclehan Cadirci & Mustafa Tekdere, 2022. "The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Tax Wedge: The Case of Selected OECD Countries," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 787-822, December.
    7. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2017. "Inference and testing breaks in large dynamic panels with strong cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 259-274.
    8. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    9. Michele Aquaro & Natalia Bailey & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: An application to US house prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 18-44, January.
    10. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    11. Herzer, Dierk & Nagel, Korbinian, 2019. "The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 352-371.
    12. Yoonseok Lee & Donggyu Sul, 2022. "Trimmed Mean Group Estimation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Panel Modeling, Micro Applications, and Econometric Methodology, volume 43, pages 177-202, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2017. "Non-core liabilities and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia during the post-2007 global financial crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2017-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Javier Hidalgo & Marcia M Schafgans, 2015. "Inference and Testing Breaks in Large Dynamic Panels with Strong Cross Sectional Dependence," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2015/583, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    15. Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Obiamaka Priscilla Egbo & Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere, 2024. "Coal–environmental quality nexus in EU-part of the Eastern Bloc: Do socioeconomic factors and bureaucracy play a substantial role?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(5), pages 2307-2328, August.
    16. Hector Sala & Pedro Trivín, 2018. "The effects of globalization and technology on the elasticity of substitution," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 617-647, August.
    17. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    18. Ferdi Akpilic & Caglayan Aslan, 2024. "The impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports by technology classification in emerging economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 907-931, October.
    19. Antonia Arsova, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Europe: A panel cointegration approach," Working Paper Series in Economics 384, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    20. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "Refugee Immigration and Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 390-414, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; Geopolitical Risks; Political Stability; CS-ARDL Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:9:y:2024:i:1:p:61-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.